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To Peg or Not to Peg: A Template for Assessing the Nobler

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  • Mr. Aasim M. Husain

Abstract

This paper proposes a template for assessing whether or not a country's economic and financial characteristics make it an appropriate candidate for a pegged exchange rate regime. The template employs quantifiable measures of attributes-trade orientation, financial integration, economic diversification, macroeconomic stabilization, credibility, and "fear-offloating" type effects-that have been identified in the literature as key potential determinants of regime choice. To illustrate, the template is applied to Kazakhstan and Pakistan. The results indicate a fairly strong case against a pegged regime in Pakistan. The implications for Kazakhstan are mixed, although changes in that economy in recent years strengthen the case against a peg.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Aasim M. Husain, 2006. "To Peg or Not to Peg: A Template for Assessing the Nobler," IMF Working Papers 2006/054, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2006/054
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mr. Aasim M. Husain & Mr. Ashoka Mody & Nienke Oomes & Mr. Robin Brooks & Mr. Kenneth Rogoff, 2003. "Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes," IMF Working Papers 2003/243, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
    3. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    4. Mr. Paolo Mauro & Miss Grace Juhn, 2002. "Long-Run Determinants of Exchange Rate Regimes: A Simple Sensitivity Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2002/104, International Monetary Fund.
    5. repec:rus:hseeco:181565 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Mr. Peter J Montiel & Bijan B. Aghevli & Mr. Mohsin S. Khan, 1991. "Exchange Rate Policy in Developing Countries: Some Analytical Issues," IMF Occasional Papers 1991/009, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Mr. Andrew Berg & Mr. Paolo Mauro & Mr. Michael Mussa & Mr. Alexander K. Swoboda & Mr. Esteban Jadresic & Mr. Paul R Masson, 2000. "Exchange Rate Regimes in an Increasingly Integrated World Economy," IMF Occasional Papers 2000/011, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Jeffrey Frankel, 2003. "A Proposed Monetary Regime for Small Commodity Exporters: Peg the Export Price (‘PEP’)," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 61-88, March.
    9. Takatoshi Ito & Anne O. Krueger, 1999. "Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Developing Countries: Theory, Practice, and Policy Issues," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_99-1, July.
    10. Sebastian Edwards, 1999. "The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime in Developing and Middle Income Countries," NBER Chapters, in: Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Developing Countries: Theory, Practice, and Policy Issues, pages 9-28, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Aasim M. Husain, 2006. "Choosing the Right Exchange Rate Regime for Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 2, pages 91-111.
    12. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 08-45.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yu‐Lin Wang & Hsiu‐Yun Lee, 2009. "Rules versus discretion on the choice between exchange‐rate‐targeting and monetary‐aggregate‐targeting," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 43-55.
    2. Fegheh Majidi , Ali, 2014. "Determinants of the Choice of Exchange Rate Regimes in OIC Countries," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 9(3), pages 85-118, April.
    3. Mr. Mark W Lewis & Ms. Aurelie Martin & Gabriel Di Bella, 2007. "Assessing Competitiveness and Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2007/201, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Chrysost BANGAKE & Jean-Baptiste DESQUILBET & Nabil JEDLANE, 2008. "The Exchange Rate Regimes for Small Countries: an Application to the Maghreb Countries," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 1601, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    5. Yu-Lin Wang & Hsiu-Yun Lee, 2009. "Rules versus discretion on the choice between exchange-rate-targeting and monetary-aggregate-targeting," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 43-55.
    6. Aasim M. Husain, 2006. "Choosing the Right Exchange Rate Regime for Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 2, pages 91-111.
    7. Aneta Krstevska, 2007. "Monetary policy strategy of the NBRM: experiences and options," Working Papers 2007-05, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia.
    8. Bonpasse, Morrison, 2006. "The Single Global Currency: Common Cents for the World," MPRA Paper 1175, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Mohsin S. Khan, 2010. "The GCC Monetary Union: Choice of Exchange Rate Regime," Chapters, in: Ronald MacDonald & Abdulrazak Al Faris (ed.), Currency Union and Exchange Rate Issues, chapter 5, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. International Monetary Fund, 2006. "Belize: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix," IMF Staff Country Reports 2006/370, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Bonpasse, Morrison, 2007. "The Single Global Currency - Common Cents for the World (2007 Edition)," MPRA Paper 5879, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Bonpasse, Morrison, 2009. "The single global currency - common cents for the world (2008 Edition)," MPRA Paper 14756, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Omar Bakkou, 2014. "The Suitable Exchange Rate Regime for the Moroccan Economy," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(3), pages 612-621.

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