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Revenue Forecasts as Performance Targets

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  • Mr. Stephan Danninger

Abstract

Budget revenue forecasts should be best estimates of expected receipts. Often they are not. This paper analyzes the rationale for overstated revenue forecasts and derives conditions for intentional biases. A theoretical model demonstrates that overstated revenue forecasts can be the result of the government's attempt to boost unobserved revenue collection effort. If positive forecast errors are costly and undermine public credibility of budget expenditure plans, the reverse outcome is possible and governments may understate revenue forecasts. A case study for Azerbaijan is presented in support of the former incentive motive.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Stephan Danninger, 2005. "Revenue Forecasts as Performance Targets," IMF Working Papers 2005/014, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2005/014
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Beate Jochimsen & Robert Lehmann, 2017. "On the political economy of national tax revenue forecasts: evidence from OECD countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 211-230, March.
    2. Friedrich Heinemann, 2006. "Planning or Propaganda? An Evaluation of Germany's Medium-term Budgetary Planning," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 62(4), pages 551-578, December.
    3. T. P. Koirala Ph.D., 2012. "Government Revenue Forecasting in Nepal," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department, vol. 24(2), pages 47-60, October.
    4. Mr. Stephan Danninger & Ms. Annette J Kyobe & Mr. M. Cangiano, 2005. "The Political Economy of Revenue-Forecasting Experience From Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2005/002, International Monetary Fund.
    5. T. P. Koirala, Ph.D., 2012. "Government Revenue Forecasting in Nepal," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Economic Research Department, vol. 24(2), pages 47-60, October.
    6. Power, Gabriel J. & Burris, Mark & Vadali, Sharada & Vedenov, Dmitry, 2016. "Valuation of strategic options in public–private partnerships," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 50-68.
    7. Stanislav Klazar, 2006. "Tax Revenue Prediction under Condition of Imperfect Control over Tax-Collecting Authority [Predikce daňových příjmů v podmínkách nedokonalé kontroly daňových úřadů]," Acta Oeconomica Pragensia, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2006(3), pages 48-62.
    8. Beate Jochimsen & Robert Lehmann, 2017. "On the political economy of national tax revenue forecasts: evidence from OECD countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 211-230, March.

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