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The growth effect of democracy: Is it heterogenous and how can it be estimated?

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Torsten Persson
Guido Tabellini

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Abstract

We estimate the effect of political regime transitions on growth with semi-parametric methods, combining difference in differences with matching, that have not been used in macroeconomic settings. Our semi-parametric estimates suggest that previous parametric estimates may have seriously underestimated the growth effects of democracy. In particular, we find an average negative effect on growth of leaving democracy on the order of ?2 percentage points implying effects on income per capita as large as 45 percent over the 1960-2000 panel. Heterogenous characteristics of reforming and non-reforming countries appear to play an important role in driving these results.

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Paper provided by IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University in its series Working Papers with number 322.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:igi:igierp:322

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  1. Torsten Persson & Guido Tabellini, 2006. "Democratic Capital: The Nexus of Political and Economic Change," NBER Working Papers 12175, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 2006. "Democracy and Development: The Devil in the Details," CEPR Discussion Papers 5499, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Dani Rodrik & Romain Wacziarg, 2005. "Do Democratic Transitions Produce Bad Economic Outcomes?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 50-55, May. [Downloadable!]
  4. Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2005. "Do Leaders Matter? National Leadership and Growth Since World War II," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 120(3), pages 835-864, August.
  5. Timothy Besley & Masayuki Kudamatsu, 2007. "Making Autocracy Work," STICERD - Development Economics Papers 48, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-in-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Persson, Torsten, 2005. "Forms of Democracy, Policy and Economic Development," CEPR Discussion Papers 4938, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Giavazzi, Francesco & Tabellini, Guido, 2005. "Economic and political liberalizations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 1297-1330, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Susan Athey & Guido W. Imbens, 2006. "Identification and Inference in Nonlinear Difference-in-Differences Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(2), pages 431-497, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Heckman, James J & Ichimura, Hidehiko & Todd, Petra, 1998. "Matching as an Econometric Evaluation Estimator," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 65(2), pages 261-94, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Elias Papaioannou & Gregorios Siourounis, 2007. "Democratization And Growth," CEDI Discussion Paper Series 07-13, Centre for Economic Development and Institutions(CEDI), Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Alberto Abadie, 2005. "Semiparametric Difference-in-Differences Estimators," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 72(1), pages 1-19, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Michael Lechner, 1999. "Identification and Estimation of Causal Effects of Multiple Treatments Under the Conditional Independence Assumption," IZA Discussion Papers 91, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  14. Richard Blundell & Monica Costa Dias & Costas Meghir & John Van Reenen, 2001. "Evaluating the employment impact of a mandatory job search assistance program," IFS Working Papers W01/20, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Elias Papaioannou & Gregorios Siourounis, 2007. "Democratization And Growth," CEDI Discussion Paper Series 07-13, Centre for Economic Development and Institutions(CEDI), Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Pauline Grosjean & Claudia Senik, 2007. "Should Market Liberalization Precede Democracy? Causal Relations between Political Preferences and Development," IZA Discussion Papers 2889, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Pääkkönen, Jenni, 2009. "Economic Freedom as a Driver for Growth in Transition," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2009, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
  4. Vladimir Kühl Teles & Carlos Pereira, 2008. "Political institutions matter for incipient but not for consolidated democracies: a political economy analysis of economic growth," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807211539390, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
  5. Antonio Ciccone & Markus Brückner, 2008. "Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity," Economics Working Papers 1063, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Guido Tabellini, 2007. "Institutions and Culture," Working Papers 330, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
  7. Olper, Alessandro & Raimondi, Valentina, 2008. "Consitutional Rules and Agricultural Policy Outcomes," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 43870, European Association of Agricultural Economists. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Gabriele Deana & Andrea Gamba, 2008. "Democracy, openness and jumps in growth," CESPRI Working Papers 221, CESPRI, Centre for Research on Innovation and Internationalisation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy, revised Jul 2008. [Downloadable!]
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