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Autocratic Transitions and Growth

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  • Tommaso Nannicini
  • Roberto Ricciuti

Abstract

In this paper we use a transparent statistical methodology – synthetic control methods – to implement data-driven comparative studies about the impact of autocratic transition on real per capita GDP. The applied methodology compares the growth of countries that experienced a transition to autocracy with the growth of a convex combination of similar countries that remained democratic, and it accommodates for the time-varying impact of unobservable heterogeneity. To implement this statistical framework, in a panel of 160 countries, we focus on 14 episodes of transition from democracy to autocracy. We find that the effects of autocratic transitions come in all shapes and sizes, since our data are split in almost equal parts between insignificant, negative, and positive effects. We also find that negative effects tend to get worse over time, and that African countries are badly affected by the autocratic transition possibly because of a resource curse.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2010/wp-cesifo-2010-02/cesifo1_wp2967.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 2967.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2967

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Related research

Keywords: autocracy; democracy; growth; synthetic control methods;

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References

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  1. Francesco Giavazzi & Guido Tabellini, 2004. "Economic and Political Liberalizations," Working Papers 264, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  2. Acemoglu, Daron & Ticchi, Davide & Vindigni, Andrea, 2008. "A Theory of Military Dictatorships," Papers, Princeton University, Research Program in Political Economy 03-10-2008a, Princeton University, Research Program in Political Economy.
  3. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 2006. "Democracy and Development: The Devil in the Details," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 5499, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  16. Andreas Billmeier & Tommaso Nannicini, 2009. "Trade Openness and Growth: Pursuing Empirical Glasnost," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(3), pages 447-475, August.
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  19. Grossman, Herschel I. & Noh, Suk Jae, 1994. "Proprietary public finance and economic welfare," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 187-204, February.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Cecilia García-Peñalosa & Maty Konte, 2013. "Why Are Women Less Democratic Than Men? Evidence from Sub-Saharan African Countries," Working Papers halshs-00802838, HAL.
  2. Emmanuel Flachaire & Cecilia Garcìa-Peñalosa & Maty Konte, 2011. "Political versus Economic Institutions in the Growth Process," Working Papers halshs-00586038, HAL.
  3. Ricciuti, Roberto, 2010. "Accumulazione del capitale e crescita economica tra Italia liberale e regime fascista," POLIS Working Papers, Institute of Public Policy and Public Choice - POLIS 141, Institute of Public Policy and Public Choice - POLIS.
  4. Ilaria Petrarca & Roberto Ricciuti, 2014. "Synthetic ‘Real Socialism’: A Counterfactual Analysis of Political and Economic Liberalizations," Working Papers, University of Verona, Department of Economics 11/2014, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
  5. Vincenzo Bove & Roberto Nisticò, 2014. "Coups d'état and Defense Spending: A Counterfactual Analysis," CSEF Working Papers, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy 366, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.

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