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Matching Theory and Data: Bayesian Vector Autoregression and Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models

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Author Info

  • Alexander Kriwoluzky

Abstract

This paper shows how to identify the structural shocks of a Vector Autore- gression (VAR) while at the same time estimating a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that is not assumed to replicate the data generating process. It proposes a framework to estimate the parameters of the VAR model and the DSGE model jointly: the VAR model is identified by sign restrictions derived from the DSGE model; the DSGE model is estimated by matching the corresponding impulse response functions.

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File URL: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/papers/pdf/SFB649DP2008-060.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany in its series SFB 649 Discussion Papers with number SFB649DP2008-060.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2008-060

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Keywords: Bayesian Model Estimation; Vector Autoregression; Identification.;

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References

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  1. Andreas Beyer & Roger E.A. Farmer, 2006. "Identification Problems in SDGE Models with an illustration to a small Macro model," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 81, Society for Computational Economics.
  2. Canova, Fabio & Sala, Luca, 2009. "Back to square one: identification issues in DSGE models," CEPR Discussion Papers 7234, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S., 1996. "Bayesian Vector Autoregressions with Stochastic Volatility," Discussion Paper 1996-09, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  4. Ingram, Beth F. & Whiteman, Charles H., 1994. "Supplanting the 'Minnesota' prior: Forecasting macroeconomic time series using real business cycle model priors," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 497-510, December.
  5. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148 Elsevier.
  6. Markku Lanne, Helmut Luetkepohl, 2006. "Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks via Changes in Volatility," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/23, European University Institute.
  7. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2005. "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-039, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  8. Smith, A A, Jr, 1993. "Estimating Nonlinear Time-Series Models Using Simulated Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages S63-84, Suppl. De.
  9. Ravn, Morten O. & Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín & Uuskula, Lenno, 2010. "Deep habits and the dynamic effects of monetary policy shocks," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 236-258, June.
  10. Lanne, Markku & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2010. "Structural Vector Autoregressions With Nonnormal Residuals," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(1), pages 159-168.
  11. Karel Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2008. "The Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated U.S. Tax Policy Shocks: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/05, European University Institute.
  12. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
  13. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 6112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, 09.
  15. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2007. "Fluctuating Macro Policies and the Fiscal Theory," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2006, Volume 21, pages 247-316 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identification Through Heteroskedasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 777-792, November.
  17. Uhlig, Harald, 1999. "What are the Effects of Monetary Policy on Output? Results from an Agnostic Identification Procedure," CEPR Discussion Papers 2137, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
  19. White, Halbert, 1982. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, January.
  20. Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Daniel Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2006. "Markov-Switching Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory and Application," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 69, Society for Computational Economics.
  21. Morten O. Ravn & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2007. "Explaining the Effects of Government Spending Shocks on Consumption and the Real Exchange Rate," Economics Working Papers ECO2007/23, European University Institute.
  22. Jon Faust, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," International Finance Discussion Papers 610, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  23. Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Trognon, Alain, 1984. "Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Methods: Theory," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 681-700, May.
  24. Lanne, Markku & Lütkepohl, Helmut & Maciejowska, Katarzyna, 2010. "Structural vector autoregressions with Markov switching," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 121-131, February.
  25. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Priors from General Equilibrium Models for VARS," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(2), pages 643-673, 05.
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Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Matching Theory and Data: Bayesian Vector Autoregression and Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models
    by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2009-09-27 01:45:04
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
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Cited by:
  1. Alexander Kriwoluzky, 2009. "Pre-announcement and Timing - The Effects of a Government Expenditure Shock," Economics Working Papers ECO2009/40, European University Institute.

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