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Optimal Policy Under Model Uncertainty: A Structural-Bayesian Estimation Approach

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  • Alexander Kriwoluzky
  • Christian Stoltenberg

Abstract

In this paper we propose a novel methodology to analyze optimal policies under model uncertainty in micro-founded macroeconomic models. As an application we assess the relevant sources of uncertainty for the optimal conduct of monetary policy within (parameter uncertainty) and across models (specification uncertainty) using EU 13 data. Parameter uncertainty matters only if the zero bound on interest rates is explicitly taken into account. In any case, optimal monetary policy is highly sensitive with respect to specification uncertainty implying substantial welfare gains of a robustly-optimal rule that incorporates this risk.

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File URL: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/papers/pdf/SFB649DP2007-040.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany in its series SFB 649 Discussion Papers with number SFB649DP2007-040.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2007-040

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Keywords: Optimal monetary policy; model uncertainty; Bayesian model estimation.;

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References

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  1. Javier Andrés & J. David López-Salido & Javier Vallés, 2001. "Money in an Estimated Business Cycle Model of the Euro Area," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0121, Banco de Espa�a.
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  15. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Woodford, Michael, 2006. "Linear-Quadratic Approximation of Optimal Policy Problems," CEPR Discussion Papers 5964, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Michael Woodford, 2003. "Optimal Interest-Rate Smoothing," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(4), pages 861-886, October.
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  20. Mccallum, Bennet T., 1988. "Robustness properties of a rule for monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 173-203, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Volodymyr Perederiy, 2007. "Kombinierte Liquiditäts- und Solvenzkennzahlen und ein darauf basierendes Insolvenzprognosemodell für deutsche GmbHs," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2007-060, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.

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