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Does More Unemployment Cause More Fear of Unemployment?

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Author Info

  • Vladimir Gimpelson

    ()
    (Centre for Labour Market Studies, Higher School of Economics, Moscow)

  • Aleksey Oshchepkov

    ()
    (Centre for Labour Market Studies, Higher School of Economics, Moscow.)

Abstract

Using the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey data, the paper examines Russian workers' fear of unemployment under different economic and labour market conditions during the last 15 years. We employ two alternative measures for this fear. The first one looks at the workers’ fear of losing their current jobs, while the second deals with the fear of not finding relevant re-employment in case of displacement. In order to get the best possible measurement of unemployment for those local and social environments where our respondents live and work, we design unemployment rates for narrowly defined regional and demographic (peer) groups. Estimating ordered probit models for both fear measures, and controlling for various worker and job characteristics, we do not find significant causal effects of unemployment on these fears in most of our specifications. These results are robust to exclusion of potentially endogenous variables; they hold for different periods, subsamples, and levels of job security. Moreover, our simulations show that even a large increase in the unemployment rate has little impact on conditional probabilities of expressing a strong or weak fear of unemployment. These results suggest that the high level and persistence of fear of unemployment in Russia may be caused by non-economic factors

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Research University Higher School of Economics in its series HSE Working papers with number WP BRP 13/EC/2012.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in WP BRP Series: Economics / EC, February 2012, pages 1-34
Handle: RePEc:hig:wpaper:13/ec/2012

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Keywords: fear of unemployment; job insecurity; Russia.;

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References

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  1. Andrew Benito, 2006. "Does job insecurity affect household consumption?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(1), pages 157-181, January.
  2. Vladimir Gimpelson & Rostislav Kapelyushnikov & Anna Lukyanova, 2010. "Employment Protection Legislation in Russia: Regional Enforcement and Labor Market Outcomes," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(4), pages 611-636, December.
  3. Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2009. "Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk-Taking?," NBER Working Papers 14813, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Andrew Clark & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2009. "Job security and job protection," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(2), pages 207-239, April.
  5. DavidG. Blanchflower & Chris Shadforth, 2009. "Fear, Unemployment and Migration," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(535), pages F136-F182, 02.
  6. Charles F. Manski & John D. Straub, 1999. "Worker Perceptions of Job Insecurity in the Mid-1990s: Evidence from the Survey of Economic Expectations," NBER Working Papers 6908, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Philippe Aghion & Yann Algan & Pierre Cahuc & Andrei Shleifer, 2010. "Regulation and Distrust," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 125(3), pages 1015-1049, August.
  8. Gimpelson, Vladimir & Kapeliushnikov, Rostislav & Lukiyanova, Anna, 2009. "Stuck Between Surplus and Shortage: Demand for Skills in the Russian Industry," IZA Discussion Papers 3934, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  9. J. Dominitz & C. F. Manski, . "Perceptions of Economic Insecurity: Evidence from the Survey of Economic Expectations," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1105-96, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
  10. Smyth, David J. & Taylor, Susan Washburn, 1992. "Do group-specific or national unemployment rates influence perceptions?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 379-388, December.
  11. Melvin Stephens, 2004. "Job Loss Expectations, Realizations, and Household Consumption Behavior," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 253-269, February.
  12. Green, Francis & Felstead, Alan & Burchell, Brendan, 2000. " Job Insecurity and the Difficulty of Regaining Employment: An Empirical Study of Unemployment Expectations," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(0), pages 855-83, Special I.
  13. Blanchflower, D., 1989. "Fear, Unemployment And Pay Flexibility," Papers 344, London School of Economics - Centre for Labour Economics.
  14. Giuliano, Paola & Spilimbergo, Antonio, 2009. "Growing Up in a Recession: Beliefs and the Macroeconomy," CEPR Discussion Papers 7399, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Wasmer, Etienne, 2006. "The Economics of Prozac (Do Employees Really Gain from Strong Employment Protection?)," CEPR Discussion Papers 5991, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Pierre Cahuc & Andrei Shleifer & Philippe Aghion & Yann Algan, 2009. "Regulation and Distrust," Sciences Po publications 14648, Sciences Po.
  17. Lehmann, Hartmut & Razzolini, Tiziano & Zaiceva, Anzelika, 2011. "Job Separations and Informality in the Russian Labor Market," IZA Discussion Papers 6230, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  18. Linz, Susan J. & Semykina, Anastasia, 2008. "How do workers fare during transition? Perceptions of job insecurity among Russian workers, 1995-2004," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 442-458, June.
  19. Daniel Treisman, 2011. "The Geography of Fear," NBER Working Papers 16838, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Gimpelson, Vladimir & Kapeliushnikov, Rostislav, 2011. "Labor Market Adjustment: Is Russia Different?," IZA Discussion Papers 5588, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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Cited by:
  1. Lokshin, Michael & Gimpelson, Vladimir & Oshchepkov, Aleksey, 2012. "Explaining the Dynamics in Perceptions of Job Insecurity in Russia," IZA Discussion Papers 6422, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

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