Should We Trust Hypothetical Referenda? Test and Identification Problems
AbstractIn a paper published in the Journal of Political Economy, Cummings et al. experimentally compare hypothetical and real-money referenda. They reject the incentive compatibility hypothesis of hypothetical referenda. However, in a comment, Haab et al. claim that the hypothesis cannot be rejected if one corrects for heteroskedasticity. In this note we show that the methodology used by Haab et al. is flawed, and their conclusions unwarranted. Our results rather support the original conclusion that hypothetical referenda appears not to resemble real referenda (unless one has reasons to believe that the true variance is much larger in the hypothetical case). This paper outlines design and identification difficulties arising when statistically comparing real and hypothetical referenda.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 189.
Length: 12 pages
Date of creation: 19 Jan 2006
Date of revision: 24 Jan 2006
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, University of Gothenburg, Box 640, SE 405 30 GÖTEBORG, Sweden
Phone: 031-773 10 00
Web page: http://www.handels.gu.se/econ/
More information through EDIRC
Hypothetical referenda; incentive compatibility; non-market valuation; identification;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
- C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
- Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-01-24 (All new papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Cummings, Ronald G, et al, 1997. "Are Hypothetical Referenda Incentive Compatible?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(3), pages 609-21, June.
- Cameron, Trudy Ann & Poe, Gregory L. & Ethier, Robert G. & Schulze, William D., 2002. "Alternative Non-market Value-Elicitation Methods: Are the Underlying Preferences the Same?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 391-425, November.
- Lusk, Jayson L., 2002.
"Effects Of Cheap Talk On Consumer Willingness-To-Pay For Golden Rice,"
2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA
19597, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
- Jayson L. Lusk, 2003. "Effects of Cheap Talk on Consumer Willingness-to-Pay for Golden Rice," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(4), pages 840-856.
- Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1984.
"Convenient specification tests for logit and probit models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 241-262, July.
- Russell Davidson & James G. MacKinnon, 1982. "Convenient Specification Tests for Logit and Probit Models," Working Papers 514, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Trudy Ann Cameron & Michelle D. James, 1986.
"Efficient Estimation Methods for "Closed-Ended" Contingent Valuation Surveys,"
UCLA Economics Working Papers
404, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Cameron, Trudy Ann & James, Michelle D, 1987. "Efficient Estimation Methods for "Closed-ended' Contingent Valuation Surveys," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(2), pages 269-76, May.
- Timothy C. Haab & Ju-Chin Huang & John C. Whitehead, 1999.
"Are Hypothetical Referenda Incentive Compatible? A Comment,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(1), pages 186-196, February.
- Timothy C. Haab & Ju-Chin Huang & John C. Whitehead, . "Are Hypothetical Referenda Incentive Compatible? A Comment," Working Papers 9708, East Carolina University, Department of Economics.
- Kiefer, Nicholas M & Skoog, Gary R, 1984. "Local Asymptotic Specification Error Analysis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(4), pages 873-85, July.
- Vossler, Christian A. & Kerkvliet, Joe, 2003. "A criterion validity test of the contingent valuation method: comparing hypothetical and actual voting behavior for a public referendum," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 631-649, May.
- Louviere,Jordan J. & Hensher,David A. & Swait,Joffre D. With contributions by-Name:Adamowicz,Wiktor, 2000. "Stated Choice Methods," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521788304, October.
- John A. List & Robert P. Berrens & Alok K. Bohara & Joe Kerkvliet, 2004. "Examining the Role of Social Isolation on Stated Preferences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(3), pages 741-752, June.
- Yatchew, Adonis & Griliches, Zvi, 1985. "Specification Error in Probit Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(1), pages 134-39, February.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marie Andersson).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.