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The Inefficient Markets Hypothesis: Why Financial Markets Do Not Work Well in the Real World

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  • Roger E.A. Farmer

    ()
    (UCLA Economics - University of California, Los Angeles)

  • Carine Nourry

    ()
    (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - Aix-Marseille Univ. - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - Ecole Centrale Marseille (ECM), IUF - Institut Universitaire de France - Ministère de l'Enseignement Supérieur et de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Alain Venditti

    ()
    (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - Aix-Marseille Univ. - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - Ecole Centrale Marseille (ECM), EDHEC Business School - Département Comptabilité, Droit, Finance et Economie)

Abstract

Existing literature continues to be unable to offer a convincing explanation for the volatility of the stochastic discount factor in real world data. Our work provides such an explanation. We do not rely on frictions, market incompleteness or transactions costs of any kind. Instead, we modify a simple stochastic representative agent model by allowing for birth and death and by allowing for heterogeneity in agents' discount factors. We show that these two minor and realistic changes to the timeless Arrow-Debreu paradigm are sufficient to invalidate the implication that competitive financial markets efficiently allocate risk. Our work demonstrates that financial markets, by their very nature, cannot be Pareto efficient, except by chance. Although individuals in our model are rational; markets are not.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number halshs-00796672.

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Date of creation: Feb 2013
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Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00796672

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Keywords: inefficient markets; heterogeneous agents; overlapping generations; sunspots; extrinsic uncertainty; excess volatility;

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References

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  1. John Moore & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, . "Credit Cycles," Discussion Papers 1995-5, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  2. Jess Benhabib & Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2012. "Sentiments and Aggregate Demand Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 18413, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Bullard, James & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2010. "A Model Of Near-Rational Exuberance," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(02), pages 166-188, April.
  4. Farmer, Roger E.A. & Nourry, Carine & Venditti, Alain, 2011. "Debt, deficits and finite horizons: The stochastic case," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 47-49, April.
  5. Benhabib, J. & Farmer, R.E.A, 1991. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Papers 165, Cambridge - Risk, Information & Quantity Signals.
  6. Wen, Yi, 1998. "Capacity Utilization under Increasing Returns to Scale," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 7-36, July.
  7. Chao Gu & Fabrizio Mattesini & Cyril Monnet & Randall Wright, 2013. "Endogenous Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 121(5), pages 940 - 965.
  8. John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1995. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," NBER Working Papers 4995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  10. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2005. "Bubbles and Capital Flow Volatility: Causes and Risk Management," NBER Working Papers 11618, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Emmanuel Farhi & Jean Tirole, 2011. "Bubbly Liquidity," NBER Working Papers 16750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Farmer, Roger E A, 2012. "Qualitative Easing: How it Works and Why it Matters," CEPR Discussion Papers 9153, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Eugene F. Fama, 1963. "Mandelbrot and the Stable Paretian Hypothesis," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 420.
  14. Guillaume Rocheteau & Randall Wright, 2010. "Liquidity and asset market dynamics," Working Paper 1016, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  15. R. Mehra & E. Prescott, 2010. "The equity premium: a puzzle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1401, David K. Levine.
  16. Cass, David & Shell, Karl, 1983. "Do Sunspots Matter?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 193-227, April.
  17. Shell, Karl, 1971. "Notes on the Economics of Infinity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(5), pages 1002-11, Sept.-Oct.
  18. Malinvaud, Edmond, 1987. "The Overlapping Generations Model in 1947," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 25(1), pages 103-05, March.
  19. John Geanakoplos & Ana Fostel, 2008. "Leverage Cycles and the Anxious Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1211-44, September.
  20. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Presidential Address: Discount Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1047-1108, 08.
  21. Roger E.A. Farmer & Jang Ting Guo, 1992. "Real Business Cycles and the Animal Spirits Hypothesis," UCLA Economics Working Papers 680, UCLA Department of Economics.
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Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. The Inefficient Markets Hypothesis: Why Financial Markets Do Not Work Well in the Real World
    by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2013-03-15 19:50:06
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
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Cited by:
  1. Dmitry Plotnikov, 2014. "Hysteresis in Unemployment and Jobless Recoveries," IMF Working Papers 14/77, International Monetary Fund.
  2. de la Torre, Augusto & Ize, Alain, 2013. "The foundations of macroprudential regulation : a conceptual roadmap," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6575, The World Bank.
  3. Beniamino Moro, 2013. "The Run On Repo and the Liquidity Shortage Problems of the Current Global Financial Crisis: Europe vs. The US," Ekonomi-tek - International Economics Journal, Turkish Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 41-77, January.
  4. Roger Farmer, 2014. "Asset Prices in a Lifecycle Economy," NBER Working Papers 19958, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Farmer, Roger, 2013. "The Natural Rate Hypothesis: an idea past its sell-by date," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 53(3), pages 244-256.

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