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The Free Trade Agreement Morocco-EU: a simulation of the impact on EU exports

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  • José V. Blanes

    ()
    (Universidad Pablo de Olavide)

  • Juliette Milgram Baleix

    ()
    (Department of Economic Theory and Economic History, University of Granada.)

Abstract

We analyse the effect due of the next FTA between Morocco and the EU on bilateral Moroccan imports. As our main contribution to the existing literature, we include in our gravity equation tariff data at the industry level. This allows to better estimate trade determinants and also makes possible to perform simulations of the tariff dismantling taking into account its different path for each industry and year. A complete tariff dismantling will double the average yearly trade growth observed in the years just before the transition period to the FTA begun. The average effect follows the tariff reduction schedule being greater at the beginning and at the end of the transition period. The effect is positive for all EU Member States but exports growth to Morocco is greater for Portugal, Greece, Slovakia, Lithuania and Spain and lower for Germany, Denmark, Finland, France and Sweden. By industries, the faster growth are predicted for Leather and leather products, Wood and wood products, Textiles and textile products, Rubber and plastic products and Pulp, paper an paper products and publishing and printing. Finally, we also find a positive effect of Moroccan immigration in the EU on bilateral trade.

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File URL: http://www.ugr.es/~teoriahe/RePEc/gra/wpaper/thepapers06_09.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada. in its series ThE Papers with number 06/09.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 26 Oct 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:gra:wpaper:06/09

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Keywords: liberalisation; EU; Morocco; Free Trade Area; Tariff; Immigration; Liberalisation; gravity equation.;

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  1. José V. Blanes & Joan A. Martín-Montaner, 2006. "Migration Flows and Intra-Industry Trade Adjustments," Working Papers 06.04, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics.
  2. Andrew K. Rose, 2004. "Do We Really Know That the WTO Increases Trade?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 98-114, March.
  3. Keith Head & John Ries, 1998. "Immigration and Trade Creation: Econometric Evidence from Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 31(1), pages 47-62, February.
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  6. José Vicente Blanes-Cristóbal, . "Immigrant's Characteristics and its different effects on bilateral trade," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 05-09, FEDEA.
  7. Castilho, Marta & Zignago, Soledad, 2002. "FDI, Trade and Integration in Mercosur," MPRA Paper 43886, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Shang-Jin Wei, 1996. "Intra-National versus International Trade: How Stubborn are Nations in Global Integration?," NBER Working Papers 5531, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. José V. Blanes, 2005. "Does Immigration Help to Explain Intra-Industry Trade? Evidence for Spain," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 141(2), pages 244-270, July.
  10. Wagner, Don & Head, Keith & Ries, John, 2002. "Immigration and the Trade of Provinces," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 49(5), pages 507-25, December.
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  16. Lionel Fontagné & Michaël Freudenberg, 1997. "Intra-Industry Trade: Methodological Issues Reconsidered," Working Papers 1997-01, CEPII research center.
  17. Juliette Milgram Baleix, 2005. "Quotas on Clothing Imports: Impact and Determinants of EU Trade Policy," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 445-460, 08.
  18. Howard J. Wall, 1999. "Using the gravity model to estimate the costs of protection," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 33-40.
  19. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March.
  20. Haveman, J-D & Hummels, D, 1996. "Trade Creation and Trade Diversion : New Empirical Results," Papers 96-004, Purdue University, Krannert School of Management - Center for International Business Education and Research (CIBER).
  21. Dunlevy, James A. & Hutchinson, William K., 1999. "The Impact of Immigration on American Import Trade in the Late Nineteenth and Early Twentieth Centuries," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 59(04), pages 1043-1062, December.
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