The Free Trade Agreement Morocco-EU: A simulation of the impact on bilateral flows
AbstractWe analyse the effect due of the next FTA between Morocco and the EU on bilateral Moroccan imports. As our main contribution to the existing literature, we include in our gravity equation tariff data at the industry level. This allows to better estimate trade determinants and also makes possible to perform simulations of the tariff dismantling taking into account its different path for each industry and year. A complete tariff dismantling will double the average yearly trade growth observed in the years just before the transition period to the FTA begun. The average effect follows the tariff reduction schedule being greater at the beginning and at the end of the transition period. The effect is positive for all EU Member States but exports growth to Morocco is greater for Portugal, Greece, Slovakia, Lithuania and Spain and lower for Germany, Denmark, Finland, France and Sweden. By industries, the faster growth are predicted for Leather and leather products, Wood and wood products, Textiles and textile products, Rubber and plastic products and Pulp, paper an paper products and publishing and printing. Finally, we also find a positive effect of Moroccan immigration in the EU on bilateral trade.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Centro de Estudios Andaluces in its series Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces with number E2006/23.
Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Liberalisation; EU; Morocco; Free Trade Area; Tariff; Immigration; gravity equation;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
- F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
- F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
- F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
- F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
- F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-01-23 (All new papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Andrew K. Rose, 2002.
"Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade?,"
NBER Working Papers
9273, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hummels, D. & Levinsohn, J., 1993.
"Monopolistic Competition and International Trade: Reconsidering the Evidence,"
339, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
- Hummels, David & Levinsohn, James, 1995. "Monopolistic Competition and International Trade: Reconsidering the Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(3), pages 799-836, August.
- David Hummels & James Levinsohn, 1993. "Monopolistic Competition and International Trade: Reconsidering the Evidence," NBER Working Papers 4389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Haveman, J-D & Hummels, D, 1996. "Trade Creation and Trade Diversion : New Empirical Results," Papers 96-004, Purdue University, Krannert School of Management - Center for International Business Education and Research (CIBER).
- Sourafel Girma & Zhihao Yu, 2002. "The link between immigration and trade: Evidence from the United Kingdom," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 115-130, March.
- José V. Blanes, 2005.
"Does Immigration Help to Explain Intra-Industry Trade? Evidence for Spain,"
Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv),
Springer, vol. 141(2), pages 244-270, July.
- José Vicente Blanes Cristóbal, 2004. "Does Immigration Help to Explain Intra-Industry Trade? Evidence for Spain," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2004/29, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
- Wagner, Don & Head, Keith & Ries, John, 2002. "Immigration and the Trade of Provinces," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 49(5), pages 507-25, December.
- James E. Rauch & Vitor Trindade, 2002.
"Ethnic Chinese Networks In International Trade,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 84(1), pages 116-130, February.
- Keith Head & John Ries, 1998. "Immigration and Trade Creation: Econometric Evidence from Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 31(1), pages 47-62, February.
- Nicolas Péridy & Michael Frudenberg & Lionel Fontagné, 1998. "Commerce international et structures de marché : une vérification empirique," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 135(4), pages 147-167.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Teresa Rodríguez).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.