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The Free Trade Agreement Morocco-EU: A simulation of the impact on bilateral flows

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Author Info
José Vicente Blanes Cristóbal () (Universidad Pablo de Olavide)
Juliette Milgram Baleix () (Universidad de Granada)

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Abstract

We analyse the effect due of the next FTA between Morocco and the EU on bilateral Moroccan imports. As our main contribution to the existing literature, we include in our gravity equation tariff data at the industry level. This allows to better estimate trade determinants and also makes possible to perform simulations of the tariff dismantling taking into account its different path for each industry and year. A complete tariff dismantling will double the average yearly trade growth observed in the years just before the transition period to the FTA begun. The average effect follows the tariff reduction schedule being greater at the beginning and at the end of the transition period. The effect is positive for all EU Member States but exports growth to Morocco is greater for Portugal, Greece, Slovakia, Lithuania and Spain and lower for Germany, Denmark, Finland, France and Sweden. By industries, the faster growth are predicted for Leather and leather products, Wood and wood products, Textiles and textile products, Rubber and plastic products and Pulp, paper an paper products and publishing and printing. Finally, we also find a positive effect of Moroccan immigration in the EU on bilateral trade.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Centro de Estudios Andaluces in its series Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces with number E2006/23.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cea:doctra:e2006_23

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Related research
Keywords: Liberalisation EU Morocco Free Trade Area Tariff Immigration gravity equation

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Country and Industry Studies of Trade
F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Wagner, Don & Head, Keith & Ries, John, 2002. "Immigration and the Trade of Provinces," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 49(5), pages 507-25, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Hummels, David & Levinsohn, James, 1995. "Monopolistic Competition and International Trade: Reconsidering the Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(3), pages 799-836, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. José V. Blanes, 2005. "Does Immigration Help to Explain Intra-Industry Trade? Evidence for Spain," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 127(2), pages 244-270, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Haveman, J-D & Hummels, D, 1996. "Trade Creation and Trade Diversion : New Empirical Results," Papers 96-004, Purdue University, Krannert School of Management - Center for International Business Education and Research (CIBER).
  5. Keith Head & John Ries, 1998. "Immigration and Trade Creation: Econometric Evidence from Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 31(1), pages 47-62, February.
  6. James E. Rauch & Vitor Trindade, 2002. "Ethnic Chinese Networks In International Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(1), pages 116-130, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Andrew K. Rose, 2004. "Do We Really Know That the WTO Increases Trade?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 98-114, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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