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Investigating the role of poultry in livelihoods and the impact of avian flu on livelihoods outcomes in Africa

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Author Info

  • Birol, Ekin
  • Asare-Marfo, Dorene
  • Ayele, Gezahegn
  • Mensa-Bonsu, Akwasi
  • Ndirangu, Lydia
  • Okpukpara, Benjamin
  • Roy, Devesh
  • Yakhshilikov, Yorbol

Abstract

In this paper we investigate the role of poultry in households’ livelihoods portfolios and the impact of supply-and-demand shocks that may be caused by highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) on households’ various livelihoods outcomes in four Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. The study countries include Ethiopia and Kenya in East Africa and Ghana and Nigeria in West Africa. These countries represent a spectrum of SSA countries regarding disease status, means of disease spread, and the role of the poultry sector in the economy. By using nationally representative household-level secondary data and discrete choice methods (probit and zero-inflated negative binomial models), we profile the household, farm, and regional characteristics of those households that are most likely to keep poultry and those households that are most likely to be engaged in intensive poultry production (that is, to keep larger household flocks). We estimate the ex ante impact of HPAI outbreaks and scares/threats on livelihoods outcomes by using the propensity score matching approach. The results of this study generate valuable information regarding the role of poultry in the livelihoods of small-scale poultry-producing households and the livelihoods impacts of HPAI-induced supply-and-demand shocks. Such information is critical for the design of targeted, and hence effective, HPAI control and mitigation policies.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in its series IFPRI discussion papers with number 1011.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1011

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Keywords: Agricultural growth and technologies; demand shock; highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI); Livelihoods; probit model; Propensity score matching; supply shock; zero-inflated negative binomial model;

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References

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  1. Aklilu, H.A. & Udo, H.M.J. & Almekinders, C.J.M. & Van der Zijpp, A.J., 2008. "How resource poor households value and access poultry: Village poultry keeping in Tigray, Ethiopia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 96(1-3), pages 175-183, March.
  2. Petra E. TODD & Kenneth I. WOLPIN, 2008. "Ex Ante Evaluation of Social Programs," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ENSAE, issue 91-92, pages 263-291.
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  4. Ellis, Frank, 2000. "Rural Livelihoods and Diversity in Developing Countries," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296966.
  5. Thurlow, James, 2010. "Implications of avian flu for economic development in Kenya:," IFPRI discussion papers 951, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  6. Heckman, James J & Ichimura, Hidehiko & Todd, Petra, 1998. "Matching as an Econometric Evaluation Estimator," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(2), pages 261-94, April.
  7. Cameron, A. Colin & Trivedi, Pravin K., 1990. "Regression-based tests for overdispersion in the Poisson model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 347-364, December.
  8. Vuong, Quang H, 1989. "Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 307-33, March.
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  10. Caliendo, Marco & Kopeinig, Sabine, 2005. "Some Practical Guidance for the Implementation of Propensity Score Matching," IZA Discussion Papers 1588, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  11. Liangzhi You & Xinshen Diao, 2007. "Assessing the Potential Impact of Avian Influenza on Poultry in West Africa: A Spatial Equilibrium Analysis," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 348-367, 06.
  12. de Janvry, Alain & Fafchamps, Marcel & Sadoulet, Elisabeth, 1991. "Peasant Household Behaviour with Missing Markets: Some Paradoxes Explained," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1400-417, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Oparinde, Adewale & Birol, Ekin, 2011. "Farm households' preference for cash-based compensation versus livelihood-enhancing programs: A choice experiment to inform avian flu compensation policy in Nigeria," IFPRI discussion papers 1072, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  2. Oparinde, Adewale & Hodge, Ian, 2011. "Building livelihood resilience: a case study of factors affecting farm households’ adoption of coping and adaptive strategies in rural Nigeria," MPRA Paper 39162, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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