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Assessing the Potential Impact of Avian Influenza on Poultry in West Africa: A Spatial Equilibrium Analysis

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  • Liangzhi You
  • Xinshen Diao

Abstract

We analyse the potential economic impacts of avian influenza (AI) in Nigeria, using a spatial equilibrium simulation model. Depending on the size of the affected areas, the direct impact of the spread of AI along the two major migratory bird flyways would be a loss of about 4% of national chicken production. However, the indirect effect - consumers' reluctance to consume poultry if AI is detected, causing a decline in chicken prices - is generally larger than the direct effect in our simulation. We estimate that Nigerian chicken production would fall by 21% and chicken farmers would lose US$250 million of revenue if the worst-case scenario occurs. The negative impact would be unevenly distributed in the country, and some states and districts would be seriously affected. The study shows that, while most attention has focused on preventing a global influenza pandemic, preventive measures are also needed at the national, regional and local levels, because AI could potentially have a major negative impact on the poultry industry and the livelihood of smallholder farmers in many regions in West Africa. Copyright 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Journal of Agricultural Economics.

Volume (Year): 58 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 (06)
Pages: 348-367

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Handle: RePEc:bla:jageco:v:58:y:2007:i:2:p:348-367

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0021-857X

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Cited by:
  1. Thurlow, James, 2010. "Implications of avian flu for economic development in Kenya:," IFPRI discussion papers 951, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  2. Fadiga, Mohamadou L. & Okike, Iheanacho & Bett, Bernard, 2014. "An expost economic assessment of the intervention against highly pathogenic avian influenza in Nigeria," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), issue 1, April.
  3. Birol, Ekin & Asare-Marfo, Dorene & Ayele, Gezahegn & Mensa-Bonsu, Akwasi & Ndirangu, Lydia & Okpukpara, Benjamin & Roy, Devesh & Yakhshilikov, Yorbol, 2010. "Investigating the role of poultry in livelihoods and the impact of avian flu on livelihoods outcomes in Africa," IFPRI discussion papers 1011, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  4. Oparinde, Adewale & Hodge, Ian, 2011. "Building livelihood resilience: a case study of factors affecting farm households’ adoption of coping and adaptive strategies in rural Nigeria," MPRA Paper 39162, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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