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Ex Ante Evaluation of Social Programs

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Author Info
Petra E. Todd () (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)
Kenneth I. Wolpin () (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)
Abstract

This paper discusses methods for evaluating the impacts of social programs prior to their implementation. Ex ante evaluation is useful for designing programs that achieve some optimality criteria, such as maximizing impact for a given cost. This paper illustrates through several examples the use of behavioral models in predicting the impacts of hypothetical programs. Among the programs considered are wage subsidy programs, conditional cash transfer programs, and income support programs. In some cases, the behavioral model justifies a completely nonparametric estimation strategy, even when there is no direct variation in the policy instrument. In other cases, stronger modeling and/or functional form assumptions are required to evaluate a program ex ante. We illustrate the application of ex ante evaluation methods using data from the PROGRESA school subsidy experiment in Mexico. We assess the effectiveness of the method by comparing ex ante predictions of program impacts to the impacts measured under the randomized experiment.

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Paper provided by Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania in its series PIER Working Paper Archive with number 06-022.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 02 May 2006
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Handle: RePEc:pen:papers:06-022

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Related research
Keywords: ex-ante evaluation; matching; evaluation methods; school subsidy programs;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Hidehiko Ichimura & Christopher Taber, 2002. "Semiparametric Reduced-Form Estimation of Tuition Subsidies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 286-292, May. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. James J. Heckman, 2001. "Micro Data, Heterogeneity, and the Evaluation of Public Policy: Nobel Lecture," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(4), pages 673-748, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. LaLonde, Robert J, 1986. "Evaluating the Econometric Evaluations of Training Programs with Experimental Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 604-20, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Jeremy Lise & Shannon Seitz & Jeffrey Smith, 2004. "Equilibrium Policy Experiments and the Evaluation of Social Programs," NBER Working Papers 10283, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. James J. Heckman, 2000. "Causal Parameters And Policy Analysis In Economics: A Twentieth Century Retrospective," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 45-97, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Manski, Charles F., 1975. "Maximum score estimation of the stochastic utility model of choice," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 205-228, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Wolfgang Hardle & Oliver Linton, 1994. "Applied Nonparametric Methods," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1069, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  9. McFadden, Daniel L., 1984. "Econometric analysis of qualitative response models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 24, pages 1395-1457 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Heckman, James J & Ichimura, Hidehiko & Todd, Petra, 1998. "Matching as an Econometric Evaluation Estimator," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 65(2), pages 261-94, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Robin L. Lumsdaine & James H. Stock & David A. Wise, 1992. "Pension Plan Provisions and Retirement: Men & Women, Medicare, and Models," NBER Working Papers 4201, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Manski, Charles F., 1986. "Semiparametric analysis of binary response from response-based samples," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 31-40, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Terry R. Johnson & John Pencavel, 1982. "Forecasting the effects of a negative income tax program," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, ILR School, Cornell University, vol. 35(2), pages 221-234, January.
  14. Andrews, Donald W K & Schafgans, Marcia M A, 1998. "Semiparametric Estimation of the Intercept of a Sample Selection Model," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 65(3), pages 497-517, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Hidehiko Ichimura & Christopher Taber, 2000. "Direct estimation of policy impacts," IFS Working Papers W00/05, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Petra Todd & Viviana Vélez-Grajales, 2008. "How Pension Rules Affect Work and Contribution Patterns: A Behavioral Model of the Chilean Privatized Pension System," Working Papers wp193, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center. [Downloadable!]
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