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Direct Estimation of Policy Impacts

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  • Hidehiko Ichimura
  • Christopher R. Taber

Abstract

This paper specifies a general set of conditions under which the impacts of a policy can be identified using data generated under a different policy regime. We show that some of the policy impacts can be identified under relatively weak conditions on the data and structure of a model. Based on the identification results we develop estimators of policy impacts. We discuss a nonparametric method to implement the estimation but also discuss semiparametric methods in order to reduce the conditioning dimension. We then provide an empirical example of the impact of tuition subsidies using the ideas. While the framework used in this paper is fairly narrow, we believe this approach can be applied to a broad set of problems.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Technical Working Papers with number 0254.

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Date of creation: Jun 2000
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberte:0254

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References

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  1. James J. Heckman & Jeffrey A. Smith, 1998. "Evaluating the Welfare State," NBER Working Papers 6542, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. James J. Heckman & Christopher J. Flinn, 1982. "New Methods for Analyzing Structural Models of Labor Force Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 0856, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Angrist, J.D. & Imbens, G.W., 1991. "Sources of Identifying Information in Evaluation Models," Papers 9142, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
  4. Joshua Angrist & Alan Krueger, 1990. "Does Compulsory School Attendance Affect Schooling and Earnings?," Working Papers 653, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
  5. Ichimura, H., 1991. "Semiparametric Least Squares (sls) and Weighted SLS Estimation of Single- Index Models," Papers 264, Minnesota - Center for Economic Research.
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  9. David Card, 1993. "Using Geographic Variation in College Proximity to Estimate the Return to Schooling," NBER Working Papers 4483, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  11. Heckman, James J & Ichimura, Hidehiko & Todd, Petra E, 1997. "Matching as an Econometric Evaluation Estimator: Evidence from Evaluating a Job Training Programme," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(4), pages 605-54, October.
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  13. Angrist, Joshua D & Graddy, Kathryn & Imbens, Guido W, 2000. "The Interpretation of Instrumental Variables Estimators in Simultaneous Equations Models with an Application to the Demand for Fish," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(3), pages 499-527, July.
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  15. Heckman, James J & Ichimura, Hidehiko & Todd, Petra, 1998. "Matching as an Econometric Evaluation Estimator," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(2), pages 261-94, April.
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  18. Heckman, James J, 1990. "Varieties of Selection Bias," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 313-18, May.
  19. Chamberlain, Gary, 1986. "Asymptotic efficiency in semi-parametric models with censoring," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 189-218, July.
  20. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
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  22. Heckman, James J & Honore, Bo E, 1990. "The Empirical Content of the Roy Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(5), pages 1121-49, September.
  23. Joshua D. Angrist & Guido W. Imbens, 1999. "Comment on James J. Heckman, "Instrumental Variables: A Study of Implicit Behavioral Assumptions Used in Making Program Evaluations"," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 34(4), pages 823-827.
  24. LaLonde, Robert J, 1986. "Evaluating the Econometric Evaluations of Training Programs with Experimental Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 604-20, September.
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  26. Bjorklund, Anders & Moffitt, Robert, 1987. "The Estimation of Wage Gains and Welfare Gains in Self-selection," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(1), pages 42-49, February.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Thomas, R;, 2011. "Using a Semiparametric Estimator to Forecast Education Outcomes in Nicaragua's Red de Proteccion Social," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 11/02, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
  2. Pedro Carneiro & Sokbae 'Simon' Lee, 2009. "Estimating distributions of potential outcomes using local instrumental variables with an application to changes in college enrollment and wage inequality," CeMMAP working papers CWP01/09, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  3. Birol, Ekin & Asare-Marfo, Dorene & Ayele, Gezahegn & Mensah-Bonsu, Akwasi & Ndirangu, Lydia & Okpukpara, Benjamin & Roy, Devesh & Yakhshilikov, Yorbol, 2013. "The impact of avian flu on livelihood outcomes in Africa: evidence from Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 8(4), October.
  4. Hidehiko Ichimura & Christopher Taber, 2002. "Semiparametric reduced form estimation of tuition subsidies," CeMMAP working papers CWP01/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  5. repec:ese:iserwp:2008-35 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Frank Schorfheide & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 2013. "To Hold Out or Not to Hold Out," PIER Working Paper Archive 13-059, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  7. Petra E. Todd & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 2006. "Ex Ante Evaluation of Social Programs," PIER Working Paper Archive 06-022, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  8. Frank Schorfheide & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 2013. "To Hold Out or Not to Hold Out," NBER Working Papers 19565, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Christopher Ferrall, 2002. "Estimation and Inference in Social Experiments," General Economics and Teaching 0209001, EconWPA.
  10. Edward Vytlacil & James J. Heckman, 2001. "Policy-Relevant Treatment Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 107-111, May.
  11. Thomas R., 2010. "Conditional Cash Transfers to Improve Education and Health: An Ex ante Evaluation of Red de Proteccion Social, Nicaragua," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 10/04, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.

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