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Using a Semiparametric Estimator to Forecast Education Outcomes in Nicaragua's Red de Proteccion Social

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  • Thomas, R;

Abstract

This paper uses baseline data from the randomized experiment of the conditional cash transfer program - Red de Proteccion Social, Nicaragua to conduct an ex ante evaluation and compares results to those of the experimental evaluation. Reduced form estimation of a behavioural model using a health production framework forms the basis of the evaluation. A Klein and Spady semi-parametric single index model is used to predict unobserved outcomes under the treatment. The sample consists of children aged 7-13 who have not completed grade 4 of primary school. The evaluation shows that the ex ante approach closely matches the experimental outcomes in most cases. ex ante evaluation conditional cash transfers single index models education

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Paper provided by HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York in its series Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers with number 11/02.

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Date of creation: Feb 2011
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Handle: RePEc:yor:hectdg:11/02

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Keywords: ex ante evaluation; conditional cash transfers; single index models; education; health production function;

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  1. Manning, Willard G., 1998. "The logged dependent variable, heteroscedasticity, and the retransformation problem," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 283-295, June.
  2. Mullahy, John, 1998. "Much ado about two: reconsidering retransformation and the two-part model in health econometrics," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 247-281, June.
  3. Hidehiko Ichimura & Christopher Taber, 2000. "Direct estimation of policy impacts," IFS Working Papers W00/05, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
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