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Estimating distributions of potential outcomes using local instrumental variables with an application to changes in college enrollment and wage inequality

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  • Pedro Carneiro

    ()
    (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University College London)

  • Sokbae 'Simon' Lee

    ()
    (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University College London)

Abstract

This paper extends the method of local instrumental variables developed by Heckman and Vytlacil (1999, 2001, 2005) to the estimation of not only means, but also distributions of potential outcomes. The newly developed method is illustrated by applying it to changes in college enrollment and wage inequality using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth of 1979. Increases in college enrollment cause changes in the distribution of ability among college and high school graduates. This paper estimates a semiparametric selection model of schooling and wages to show that, for fixed skill prices, a 14% increase in college participation (analogous to the increase observed in the 1980s), reduces the college premium by 12% and increases the 90-10 percentile ratio among college graduates by 2%.

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File URL: http://cemmap.ifs.org.uk/wps/cwp0109_2.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies in its series CeMMAP working papers with number CWP01/09.

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Date of creation: Jan 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ifs:cemmap:01/09

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Anirban Basu, 2012. "Estimating Person-Centered Treatment (PeT) Effects Using Instrumental Variables," NBER Working Papers 18056, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Elena Martínez Sanchis & Ilker Kandemir & Juan Mora López, 2011. "Counterfactual distributions of wages via quantile regression with endogeneity," Working Papers. Serie AD 2011-25, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  3. Wooyoung Kim & Koohyun Kwon & Soonwoo Kwon & Sokbae 'Simon' Lee, 2014. "The identification power of smoothness assumptions in models with counterfactual outcomes," CeMMAP working papers CWP17/14, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  4. Eric Gautier & Stefan Soderlein, 2011. "Estimating the Distribution of Treatment Effects," Working Papers 2011-25, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  5. Victor Chernozhukov & Sokbae 'Simon' Lee & Adam Rosen, 2009. "Intersection Bounds: estimation and inference," CeMMAP working papers CWP19/09, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  6. Klein, Tobias J., 2007. "College Education and Wages in the U.K.: Estimating Conditional Average Structural Functions in Nonadditive Models with Binary Endogenous Variables," IZA Discussion Papers 2761, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  7. Martinez-Sanchis, Elena & Mora, Juan & Kandemir, Ilker, 2012. "Counterfactual distributions of wages via quantile regression with endogeneity," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3212-3229.
  8. repec:idb:brikps:8378 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. d'Haultfoeuille, Xavier & Maurel, Arnaud, 2009. "Inference on a Generalized Roy Model, with an Application to Schooling Decisions in France," IZA Discussion Papers 4606, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  10. Nybom, Martin, 2014. "The Distribution of Lifetime Earnings Returns to College," Working Paper Series 2/2014, Swedish Institute for Social Research.
  11. Victor Chernozhukov & Wooyoung Kim & Sokbae 'Simon' Lee & Adam Rosen, 2013. "Implementing intersection bounds in Stata," CeMMAP working papers CWP38/13, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  12. Christian N. Brinch & Magne Mogstad & Matthew Wiswall, 2012. "Beyond LATE with a discrete instrument. Heterogeneity in the quantity-quality interaction of children," Discussion Papers 703, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
  13. Huber, Martin & Melly, Blaise, 2011. "Quantile Regression in the Presence of Sample Selection," Economics Working Paper Series 1109, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
  14. Klein, Tobias J., 2007. "Heterogeneous Treatment Effects: Instrumental Variables without Monotonicity?," IZA Discussion Papers 2738, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  15. Martin Huber & Blaise Melly, 2012. "A test of the conditional independence assumption in sample selection models," Working Papers 2012-11, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  16. Lutz Hendricks & Todd Schoellman, 2013. "Student Abilities During the Expansion of US Education," CESifo Working Paper Series 4537, CESifo Group Munich.

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