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Earnings Functions, Rates of Return and Treatment Effects: The Mincer Equation and Beyond

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Author Info
James J. Heckman
Lance J. Lochner
Petra E. Todd

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Abstract

This paper considers the interpretation of "Mincer rates of return." We test and reject the Mincer model. It fails to track the time series of true returns. We show how repeated cross section and panel data improves the ability of analysts to estimate the ex ante and ex post marginal rate of returns. Accounting for sequential revelation of information calls into question the validity of the internal rate of return as a tool for policy analysis. The large estimated psychic costs of schooling found in recent work helps to explain why persons do not attend school even though the financial rewards for doing so are high. We present methods for computing distributions of ex post and ex ante returns.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11544.

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Date of creation: Aug 2005
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11544

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C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models

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  7. Heckman, James J, 1990. "Varieties of Selection Bias," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 313-18, May.
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  16. Carneiro, Pedro & Hansen, Karsten T. & Heckman, James J., 2002. "Removing the Veil of Ignorance in Assessing the Distributional Impacts of Social Policies," IZA Discussion Papers 453, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  17. Stephen V. Cameron & Christopher Taber, 2004. "Estimation of Educational Borrowing Constraints Using Returns to Schooling," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(1), pages 132-182, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Atkeson, Andrew & Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1992. "On Efficient Distribution with Private Information," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 59(3), pages 427-53, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. David Card, 1993. "Using Geographic Variation in College Proximity to Estimate the Return to Schooling," Working Papers 696, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section.. [Downloadable!]
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  25. Heckman, James J & Ichimura, Hidehiko & Todd, Petra, 1998. "Matching as an Econometric Evaluation Estimator," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 65(2), pages 261-94, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Florens, Jean-Pierre & Heckman, James & Meghir, Costas & Vytlacil, Edward, 2003. "Instrumental Variables, Local Instrumental Variables and Control Functions," IDEI Working Papers 249, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
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  27. Blackburn, McKinley L & Neumark, David, 1993. "Omitted-Ability Bias and the Increase in the Return to Schooling," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 11(3), pages 521-44, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  28. Heckman, James J & Ichimura, Hidehiko & Todd, Petra E, 1997. "Matching as an Econometric Evaluation Estimator: Evidence from Evaluating a Job Training Programme," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 64(4), pages 605-54, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  31. Dooley, Martin D & Gottschalk, Peter, 1984. "Earnings Inequality among Males in the United States: Trends and the Effect of Labor Force Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(1), pages 59-89, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  33. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 2000. "Does Schooling Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1160-1183, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  35. repec:fth:prinin:317 is not listed on IDEAS
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  37. Joshua D. Angrist & Alan B. Krueger, 2001. "Instrumental Variables and the Search for Identification: From Supply and Demand to Natural Experiments," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 69-85, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  38. David Card & Alan Krueger, 1990. "Does School Quality Matter? Returns to Education and the Characteristics of Public Schools in the United States," NBER Working Papers 3358, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  43. James J. Heckman & Paul LaFontaine, 2006. "Bias Corrected Estimates of GED Returns," NBER Working Papers 12018, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  47. James J. Heckman & Lance Lochner & Christopher Taber, 1998. "Explaining Rising Wage Inequality: Explorations with a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model of Labor Earnings with Heterogeneous Agents," NBER Working Papers 6384, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  48. Christian Belzil & Jörgen Hansen, 2005. "A Structural Analysis of the Correlated Random Coefficient Wage Regression Model with an Application to the OLS-IV Puzzle," IZA Discussion Papers 1585, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  51. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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