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Estimation and Inference in Social Experiments

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Author Info
Christopher Ferrall (Queen's University)

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Abstract

This paper develops a framework for analyzing the outcome of experiments carried out on forward-looking subjects. Natural experiments, unexpected policy changes, and true experiments are all included in the framework as special cases. These concepts are defined in conjunction with explicit notions of controlled and randomized experiments. The persistent issues of sample-selection bias and heterogeneous impacts that surround interpretations of experiments are endogenous to the model. Special attention is given to interpreting empirical impact of the treatment within the model. The environments in which estimated mean impacts correspond to mean subjective impacts are specified, and they are found to be a small, uninteresting subset of environments contained within the framework.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by EconWPA in its series General Economics and Teaching with number 0209001.

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Date of creation: 13 Sep 2002
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpgt:0209001

Note: Type of Document - pdf; prepared on WinXP; to print on HP/PostScript/Franciscan monk
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Related research
Keywords: Treatment Effects; Impact Analysis; Dynamic Programming; Policy Experiments;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General
C9 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Christopher Ferrall, 2008. "Explaining and Forecasting Results of The Self-Sufficiency Project," Working Papers 1165, Queen's University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Victor Aguirregabiria & Pedro Mira, 2002. "Swapping the Nested Fixed Point Algorithm: A Class of Estimators for Discrete Markov Decision Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(4), pages 1519-1543, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Angrist, Joshua D, 1990. "Lifetime Earnings and the Vietnam Era Draft Lottery: Evidence from Social Security Administrative Records," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 313-36, June.
    Other versions:
  4. Bruce D. Meyer, 1995. "Lessons from the U.S. Unemployment Insurance Experiments," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 91-131, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Mark R. Rosenzweig & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 2000. "Natural "Natural Experiments" in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(4), pages 827-874, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Hidehiko Ichimura & Christopher R. Taber, 2000. "Direct Estimation of Policy Impacts," NBER Technical Working Papers 0254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Pencavel, John, 1987. "Labor supply of men: A survey," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & R. Layard (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-102 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Arcidiacono, Peter & Jones, John B., 2000. "Finite Mixture Distribution, Sequential Likelihood, and the EM Algorithm," Working Papers 00-16, Duke University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Heckman, James J & Ichimura, Hidehiko & Todd, Petra, 1998. "Matching as an Econometric Evaluation Estimator," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 65(2), pages 261-94, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Burtless, Gary, 1995. "The Case for Randomized Field Trials in Economic and Policy Research," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 63-84, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Zvi Eckstein & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 1999. "Why Youths Drop Out of High School: The Impact of Preferences, Opportunities, and Abilities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(6), pages 1295-1340, November.
  12. V. Joseph Hotz & Guido W. Imbens & Julie H. Mortimer, 1999. "Predicting the Efficacy of Future Training Programs Using Past Experiences," NBER Technical Working Papers 0238, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Davidson, Carl & Woodbury, Stephen A, 1993. "The Displacement Effect of Reemployment Bonus Programs," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 11(4), pages 575-605, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Woodbury, Stephen A & Spiegelman, Robert G, 1987. "Bonuses to Workers and Employers to Reduce Unemployment: Randomized Trials in Illinois," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 513-30, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Christopher Ferrall, 2003. "Solving Finite Mixture Models in Parallel," Computational Economics 0303003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Christopher Ferrall, 2008. "Explaining and Forecasting Results of The Self-Sufficiency Project," Working Papers 1165, Queen's University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jaap Abbring & Gerard van den Berg, 2005. "Social experiments and instrumental variables with duration outcomes," IFS Working Papers W05/19, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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