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A quantitative theory of information and unsecured credit

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Author Info
Kartik Athreya
Xuan S. Tam
Eric R. Young

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Abstract

Over the past three decades five striking features of aggregates in the unsecured credit market have been documented: (1) rising availability of credit along both the intensive and extensive margins, (2) rising debt accumulation, (3) rising bankruptcy rates and discharge in bankruptcy, (4) rising dispersion in interest rates across households, and (5) the emergence of a discount for borrowers with good credit ratings. We show that all five outcomes are quantitatively consistent with improvements in the ability of lenders to observe borrower characteristics. Part of our contribution is the development of an algorithm for computing equilibria with asymmetric information and individualized pricing. From a welfare perspective, our main finding is that more information is better ex ante, even though better information can rule out pooling outcomes that some groups might find beneficial ex-post.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond in its series Working Paper with number 08-06.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedrwp:08-06

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Keywords: Bankruptcy;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Robert M. Hunt, 2005. "A century of consumer credit reporting in America," Working Papers 05-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
  2. Satyajit Chatterjee & Dean Corbae & Makoto Nakajima & Jose-Victor Rios-Rull, 2007. "A quantitative theory of unsecured consumer credit with risk of default," Working Papers 07-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Ausubel, Lawrence M, 1991. "The Failure of Competition in the Credit Card Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 50-81, March.
  4. Mark Furletti, 2003. "Credit card pricing developments and their disclosure," Payment Cards Center Discussion Paper 03-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
  5. Calem, Paul S. & Gordy, Michael B. & Mester, Loretta J., 2006. "Switching costs and adverse selection in the market for credit cards: New evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1653-1685, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Fay, S. & Hurst, E. & White, M.J., 1998. "The Bankruptcy Decision: Does Stigma Matter?," Papers 98-01, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
  7. Hellwig, Martin, 1989. "Asymmetric information, financial markets, and financial institutions Where are we currently going?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(2-3), pages 277-285, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Berger, Allen N & Frame, W Scott & Miller, Nathan H, 2005. "Credit Scoring and the Availability, Price, and Risk of Small Business Credit," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 191-222, April.
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  9. Dirk Krueger & Fabrizio Perri, 2006. "Does Income Inequality Lead to Consumption Inequality? Evidence and Theory," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 73(1), pages 163-193, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Kartik Athreya, 2004. "Shame as it ever was : stigma and personal bankruptcy," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 1-19. [Downloadable!]
  11. Athreya, Kartik B., 2008. "Default, insurance, and debt over the life-cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 752-774, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Larry G. Epstein & Stanley E. Zin, 1987. "Substitution, Risk Aversion and the Temporal Behaviour of Consumption and Asset Returns I: A Theoretical Framework," Working Papers 699, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  13. Robert B. Avery & Raphael W. Bostic & Paul S. Calem & Glenn B. Canner, 2000. "Credit Scoring: Statistical Issues and Evidence from Credit-Bureau Files," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 28(3), pages 523-547. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Faruk Gul & Wolfgang Pesendorfer, 2001. "Temptation and Self-Control," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1403-1435, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Athreya, Kartik & Tam, Xuan S. & Young, Eric R., 2009. "Unsecured credit markets are not insurance markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 83-103, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Athreya, Kartik B., 2002. "Welfare implications of the Bankruptcy Reform Act of 1999," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(8), pages 1567-1595, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Edelberg, Wendy, 2006. "Risk-based pricing of interest rates for consumer loans," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 2283-2298, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Hubbard, R. Glenn & Skinner, Jonathan & Zeldes, Stephen P., 1994. "The importance of precautionary motives in explaining individual and aggregate saving," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 59-125, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Juan M. Sanchez, 2009. "The role of information in the rise in consumer bankruptcies," Working Paper 09-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
  2. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez, 2009. "Long-duration bonds and sovereign defaults," Working Paper 08-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
  3. Kartik B. Athreya & Xuan S. Tam & Eric R. Young, 2009. "Are harsh penalties for default really better?," Working Paper 09-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
  4. Kartik B. Athreya, 2008. "Credit access, labor supply, and consumer welfare," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Win, pages 17-44. [Downloadable!]
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