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Reassessing the Shimer facts

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Shigeru Fujita
Garey Ramey

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Abstract

In a recent influential paper, Shimer uses CPS duration and gross flow data to draw two conclusions: (1) separation rates are nearly acyclic; and (2) separation rates contribute little to the variability of unemployment. In this paper the authors assert that Shimer's analysis is problematic, for two reasons: (1) cyclicality is not evaluated systematically; and (2) the measured contributions to unemployment variability do not actually decompose total unemployment variability. The authors address these problems by applying a standard statistical measure of business cycle comovement, and constructing a precise decomposition of unemployment variability. Their results disconfirm Shimer's conclusions. More specifically, separation rates are highly countercyclical under various business cycle measures and filtering methods. The authors also find that fluctuations in separation rates make a substantial contribution to overall unemployment variability.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in its series Working Papers with number 07-2.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:07-2

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Christian Haefke & Michael Reiter, 2006. "Endogenous Labor Market Participation and the Business Cycle," IZA Discussion Papers 2029, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  2. Rotemberg, Julio J., 2006. "Cyclical Wages in a Search-and-Bargaining Model with Large Firms," CEPR Discussion Papers 5791, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Robert E. Hall, 2005. "Job Loss, Job Finding, and Unemployment in the U.S. Economy Over the Past Fifty Years," NBER Working Papers 11678, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Mark Gertler & Antonella Trigari, 2006. "Unemployment fluctuations with staggered Nash wage bargaining," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  5. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1993. "Low frequency filtering and real business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 207-231. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Shigeru Fujita & Garey Ramey, 2006. "The cyclicality of job loss and hiring," Working Papers 06-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Ben-David Nissim, 2005. "The separation rate cannot be exogenous," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 12(15), pages 949-951, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Michael W. Elsby & Ryan Michaels & Gary Solon, 2007. "The Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 12853, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jung, Philip, 2007. "Optimal Taxation and (Female)-Labor Force Participation over the Cycle," MPRA Paper 8744, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 13 May 2008. [Downloadable!]
  2. Shigeru Fujita, 2009. "Dynamics of worker flows and vacancies: evidence from the sign restriction approach," Working Papers 07-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
  3. Shigeru Fujita & Christopher J. Nekarda & Garey Ramey, 2007. "The cyclicality of worker flows: new evidence from the SIPP," Working Papers 07-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
  4. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2007. "The Unemployment Volatility Puzzle: Is Wage Stickiness the Answer?," CEP Discussion Papers dp0839, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  5. Wesselbaum, Dennis, 2009. "Firing Tax vs. Severance Payment - An Unequal Comparison," MPRA Paper 17637, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  6. Jonathan Thomas & Andy Snell, . " Real and Nominal Wage Rigidity in a Model of Equal-Treatment Contracting," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0708, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
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