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The great inflation in the United States and the United Kingdom: reconciling policy decisions and data outcomes

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Author Info
Riccardo DiCecio
Edward Nelson

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Abstract

We argue that the Great Inflation experienced by both the United Kingdom and the United States in the 1970s has an explanation valid for both countries. The explanation does not appeal to common shocks or to exchange rate linkages, but to the common doctrine underlying the systematic monetary policy choices in each country. The nonmonetary approach to inflation control that was already influential in the United Kingdom came to be adopted by the United States during the 1970s. We document our position by examining official policymaking doctrine in the United Kingdom and the United States in the 1970s, and by considering results from a structural macroeconomic model estimated using U.K. data.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2009-015.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2009-015

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Keywords: Inflation (Finance) ; Great Britain;

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  2. Ramey, Valerie, 1993. "How important is the credit channel in the transmission of monetary policy?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 1-45, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Shapiro, Matthew D., 2007. "Monetary policy when potential output is uncertain: Understanding the growth gamble of the 1990s," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1132-1162, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Estimation and Control of a Macroeconomic Model with Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1267-86, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Chari, V. V. & Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1998. "Expectation Traps and Discretion," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 462-492, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Friedman, Milton, 1972. "Have Monetary Policies Failed?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(2), pages 11-18, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Edward Nelson, 2005. "The Great Inflation of the Seventies: What Really Happened?," Advances in Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 5(1), pages 1297-1297. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-313, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Arthur F. Burns, 1951. "Mitchell on What Happens During Business Cycles," NBER Chapters, in: Conference on Business Cycles, pages 1-34 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  11. Michael D. Bordo & Barry Eichengreen, 2008. "Bretton Woods and the Great Inflation," NBER Working Papers 14532, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2004. "Choosing the Federal Reserve Chair: Lessons from History," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 129-162, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "The quest for prosperity without inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 633-663, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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