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The great inflation and early disinflation in Japan and Germany

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Edward Nelson

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Abstract

This paper considers the Great Inflation of the 1970s in Japan and Germany. From 1975 onward, these countries had low inflation relative to other large economies. Traditionally, this success is attributed to stronger discipline on the part of Japan and Germany’s monetary authorities—for example, more willingness to accept temporary unemployment, or greater determination not to monetize government deficits. I instead attribute the success of these countries from the mid-1970s to their governments’ and monetary authorities’ acceptance that inflation is a monetary phenomenon. Likewise their higher inflation in the first half of the 1970s is attributable to the fact that their policymakers over this period embraced nonmonetary theories of inflation.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2006-052.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Publication status: Published in International Journal of Central Banking, December 2007, 3(4), pp. 23-76
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2006-052

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Keywords: Inflation (Finance) ; Economic conditions - Japan ; Economic conditions - Germany;

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  20. Giannoni, Marc P., 2002. "Does Model Uncertainty Justify Caution? Robust Optimal Monetary Policy In A Forward-Looking Model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(01), pages 111-144, February. [Downloadable!]
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  22. Bernanke, Ben S. & Mihov, Ilian, 1997. "What does the Bundesbank target?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1025-1053, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Beyer, Andreas & Gaspar, Vítor & Gerberding, Christina & Issing, Otmar, 2009. "Opting out of the great inflation: German monetary policy after the breakdown of Bretton Woods," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,12, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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