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Do enlarged fiscal deficits cause inflation? The historical record

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  • Michael D. Bordo
  • Mickey D. Levy

Abstract

We survey the historical record for two centuries on the connection between expansionary fiscal policy and inflation. The relationship holds in wartime when fiscally stressed governments resorted to the inflation tax. In two peacetime episodes in the early twentieth century, bond‐financed fiscal deficits, unbacked by future taxes, may have contributed to inflation. Fiscal influence on monetary policy was important in the Great Inflation 1965–1983. Expansionary monetary and fiscal policy did not lead to inflation in the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–08 but, by contrast, the fiscal and monetary response to the COVID‐19 pandemic may involve risks of fiscal dominance and future inflation.

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  • Michael D. Bordo & Mickey D. Levy, 2021. "Do enlarged fiscal deficits cause inflation? The historical record," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 59-83, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecaffa:v:41:y:2021:i:1:p:59-83
    DOI: 10.1111/ecaf.12446
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Baihua Yuan & Wang Leiling & Hayot Berk Saydaliev & Vishal Dagar & Ángel Acevedo-Duque, 2022. "Testing the impact of fiscal policies for economic recovery: does monetary policy act as catalytic tool for economic Survival," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 2215-2235, November.
    5. Gmeiner, Robert & Larson, Sven, 2023. "The Fiscal Transmission Mechanism of Inflation," MPRA Paper 116250, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Valerie Boctor & Aaron Mehrotra & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2023. "Fiscal sources of inflation risk in EMDEs: the role of the external channel," BIS Working Papers 1110, Bank for International Settlements.

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