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Forecast-based monetary policy

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  • Jeffery D. Amato
  • Thomas Laubach

Abstract

A number of central banks use (published or unpublished) forecasts of goal variables as key ingredients in their decisions for instrument settings. This use of forecasts is modelled as a particular form of objective with the minimization of which the central bank is charged. We use an estimated optimization-based model with staggered price and wage setting to analyze the welfare properties of such objectives and their implications for the form of instrument rules. We find that stabilizing expected price inflation at a horizon of two years around target dominates policies of stabilizing inflation at shorter or longer horizons. However, stabilizing all fluctuations, not just forecastable ones, in both wage and price inflation leads to the closest approximation to the welfare-optimal rule.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in its series Research Working Paper with number 99-10.

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Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkrw:99-10

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Keywords: Monetary policy ; Forecasting;

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References

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  1. Svensson, Lars E O, 1999. " Inflation Targeting: Some Extensions," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 101(3), pages 337-61, September.
  2. Andrew Levin & Christopher J. Erceg & Dale W. Henderson, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Staggered Wage and Price Contracts," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1151, Society for Computational Economics.
  3. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," NBER Working Papers 5797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Estimation and Control of a Macroeconomic Model with Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1267-86, September.
  5. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1, July.
  6. Nicoletta Batini & Edward Nelson, 1999. "Optimal Horizons for Inflation Targeting," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1052, Society for Computational Economics.
  7. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 1908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  9. Woodford Michael, 2002. "Inflation Stabilization and Welfare," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-53, February.
  10. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1998. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," CFS Working Paper Series 1998/16, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  11. Jeffery Amato, Thomas Laubach, 2000. "Monetary Policy In An Estimated Optimization-Based Model With Sticky Prices And Wages," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 303, Society for Computational Economics.
  12. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  13. Woodford, Michael, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(0), pages 1-35, Supplemen.
  14. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  15. Andrew G. Haldane & Nicoletta Batini, 1998. "Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 6543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Ben S. Bernanke & Michael Woodford, 1997. "Inflation Forecasts and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 6157, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-89, November.
  18. Christopher J. Erceg, 1997. "Nominal wage rigidities and the propagation of monetary disturbances," International Finance Discussion Papers 590, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  19. Woodford, Michael, 1999. "Optimal monetary policy inertia," CFS Working Paper Series 1999/09, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  20. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1998. "Interest-Rate Rules in an Estimated Sticky Price Model," NBER Working Papers 6618, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2001. "Monetary policy rules, macroeconomic stability and inflation: a view from the trenches," Working Paper Series 0115, European Central Bank.
  2. Jansson, Per & Vredin, Anders, 2001. "Forecast-based Monetary Policy in Sweden 1992-1998: A View from Within," Working Paper Series 120, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  3. Per Jansson & Anders Vredin, 2001. "Forecast-based monetary policy in Sweden 1992-98: a view from within," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Empirical studies of structural changes and inflation, volume 3, pages 204-226 Bank for International Settlements.
  4. Smets, Frank, 2000. "What horizon for price stability," Working Paper Series 0024, European Central Bank.
  5. Lance J. Bachmeier & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "Predicting Inflation: Does The Quantity Theory Help?," Departmental Working Papers 200317, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.

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