U.S. external adjustment: is it disorderly? Is it unique? Will it disrupt the rest of the world?
AbstractIn recent years, a number of studies have analyzed the experiences of a broad range of industrial economies during periods when their current account deficits have narrowed. Such studies identified systematic aspects of external adjustment, but it is unclear how good a guide the experience of other countries may be to the effects of a future narrowing of the U.S. external imbalance. In contrast, this paper focuses in depth on the historical experience of external adjustment in the United States. Using data from the past thirty-five years, we compare economic performance in episodes during which the U.S. trade balance deteriorated and episodes during which it adjusted. We find trade balance adjustment to have been generally benign: U.S. real GDP growth tended to fall, but not to a statistically significant extent; housing construction slumped; inflation generally rose modestly; and although nominal interest rates tended to rise, real interest rates fell. The paper then compares these outcomes to those in foreign industrial economies. We find that the economic performance of the United States during periods of external adjustment is remarkably similar to the foreign experience. Finally, we also examine the performance of the foreign industrial economies during the periods of U.S. deterioration and adjustment. Contrary to concerns that U.S. adjustment will prove injurious to foreign economies, our analysis suggests that the foreign economies fared reasonably well during past periods when the U.S. trade deficit narrowed: the growth of domestic demand and real GDP abroad generally strengthened during such episodes, although inflation and interest rates tended to rise as well.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 892.
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Steven B. Kamin & Trevor A. Reeve & Nathan Sheets, 2009. "U.S. External Adjustment: Is It Disorderly? Is It Unique? Will It Disrupt The Rest Of The World?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 27(2), pages 265-292, 04.
- F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-05-26 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2007-05-26 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2007-05-26 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Freund, Caroline, 2005. "Current account adjustment in industrial countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1278-1298, December.
- Hilary Croke & Steven B. Kamin & Sylvain Leduc, 2006. "An Assessment of the Disorderly Adjustment Hypothesis for Industrial Economies," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 37-61, 05.
- Christopher Gust & Sylvain Leduc & Nathan Sheets, 2008.
"The adjustment of global external balances: does partial exchange rate pass-through to trade prices matter?,"
Working Paper Series
2008-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Gust, Christopher & Leduc, Sylvain & Sheets, Nathan, 2009. "The adjustment of global external balances: Does partial exchange-rate pass-through to trade prices matter?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 173-185, November.
- Christopher Gust & Nathan Sheets, 2007. "The adjustment of global external imbalances: does partial exchange rate pass-through to trade prices matter?," International Finance Discussion Papers 850, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- J. Bradford Jensen & Lori G. Kletzer, 2005. "Tradable Services: Understanding the Scope and Impact of Services Outsourcing," Working Paper Series WP05-9, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- Sebastian Edwards, 2005. "Is the U.S. Current Account Deficit Sustainable? And If Not, How Costly is Adjustment Likely To Be?," NBER Working Papers 11541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gabriele Galati & Guy Debelle, 2005.
"Current account adjustment and capital flows,"
BIS Working Papers
169, Bank for International Settlements.
- Abdelhak S. Senhadji & Claudio E. Montenegro, 1999. "Time Series Analysis of Export Demand Equations: A Cross-Country Analysis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(3), pages 2.
- Raphael A. Auer, 2012.
"Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Domestic Competition, and Inflation: Evidence from the 2005/08 Revaluation of the Renminbi,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
3759, CESifo Group Munich.
- Raphael Auer, 2011. "Exchange rate pass-through, domestic competition and inflation -- evidence from the 2005/08 revaluation of the Renminbi," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 68, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Raphael Anton Auer, 2012. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Domestic Competition, and Inflation: Evidence from the 2005/08 Revaluation of the Renminbi," Working Papers 2012-01, Swiss National Bank.
- Ravi Balakrishnan & Volodymyr Tulin & Tamim Bayoumi, 2007. "Globalization, Gluts, Innovation or Irrationality: What Explains the Easy Financing of the U.S. Current Account Deficit?," IMF Working Papers 07/160, International Monetary Fund.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kris Vajs) The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Kris Vajs to update the entry or send us the correct address.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.