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The debt crisis: lessons of the 1980's for the 1990's

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Author Info
Graciela L. Kaminsky
Alfredo Pereira

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Abstract

One of the salient characteristics of the 1980s is the growth collapse of the Latin American debtor countries. The debt-overhang literature claims that the debt crisis is the main reason for the growth collapse. However, previous empirical work has failed to support this hypothesis. We reexamine this hypothesis further using simulation and econometric methods. We find that once we account for the effects of social inequality on government policy and consumption, the burden of servicing the debt becomes an important factor in explaining the collapse in investment and output growth in Latin America. We draw some conclusions for the 1990s.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 481.

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Date of creation: 1994
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:481

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Keywords: Capital ; Debt;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Is public expenditure productive?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-200, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Arrau, Patricio, 1990. "How does the debt crisis affect investment and growth? : a neoclassical growth model applied to Mexico," Policy Research Working Paper Series 378, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Reinhart, Carmen & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1994. "Capital inflows to Latin America," MPRA Paper 13406, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Berg, Andrew & Sachs, Jeffrey, 1988. "The debt crisis structural explanations of country performance," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 271-306, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Robert J. Barro, 1989. "A Cross-Country Study of Growth, Saving, and Government," NBER Working Papers 2855, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Cohen, Daniel, 1993. "Growth and External Debt," CEPR Discussion Papers 778, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1989. "Social Conflict and Populist Policies in Latin America," NBER Working Papers 2897, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1992. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America," MPRA Paper 13843, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  9. Borensztein, Eduardo, 1990. "Debt overhang, credit rationing and investment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 315-335, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Nouriel Roubini & Jeffrey Sachs, 1988. "Political and Economic Determinants of Budget Deficits in the IndustrialDemocracies," NBER Working Papers 2682, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Reinhart, Carmen & Ostry, Jonathan, 1995. "El ahorro y 1a tasa de interes real en los paises en desarrollo
    [Saving and the Real Interest Rate in Developing Countries]    ," MPRA Paper 13733, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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