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How does the debt crisis affect investment and growth? : a neoclassical growth model applied to Mexico

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Author Info
Arrau, Patricio
Abstract

Most economists and specialists in international finance believe that the debt crisis hurts macroeconomic performance, particularly discouraging investment and growth oriented structural reforms. Identifiying the link between the foreign debt overhang and macroeconomic performance is essential for assessing what creditors and debtors have to gain from alternative debt solutions. Having set up a neoclassical growth model to study the impact of the debt crisis on investment and growth, the author concludes : a) the best case for growth is given by inflation financing; the worst case, by national debt financing. In between are different combinations of income taxation and capital income taxation; and b) growth oriented reforms can increase the present value repayment by several percentage points of GDP. If these reforms are negotiated in the context of a debt reduction agreement, the secondary market discount for the remaining debt can be substantially reduced.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 378.

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Date of creation: 30 Apr 1990
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:378

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Keywords: Economic Theory&Research; Environmental Economics&Policies; Banks&Banking Reform; Economic Growth; Financial Intermediation;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Andrew B. Abel, 1988. "Consumption and Investment," NBER Working Papers 2580, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Andrew B. Abel & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1994. "Does the Consumption of Different Age Groups Move Together? A New Nonparametric Test of Intergenerational Altruism," NBER Working Papers 2490, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Joseph G. Altonji & Fumio Hayashi & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1993. "Is the Extended Family Altruistically Linked? Direct Tests Using Micro Data," NBER Working Papers 3046, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Arrau, Patricio, 1989. "Human capital and endogenous growth in a large scale life cycle model," Policy Research Working Paper Series 342, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Abel, Andrew B., 1985. "Dynamic behavior of capital accumulation in a cash-in-advance model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 55-71, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Alfredo Pereira, 1994. "The debt crisis: lessons of the 1980's for the 1990's," International Finance Discussion Papers 481, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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