IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/6073.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Investment decisions, equivalent risk and bounded rationality

Author

Listed:
  • Magni, Carlo Alberto

Abstract

The Net Present Value maximizing model shows fallacies and inconsistencies that may be easily unmasked by performing a cognitive analysis of the decision-making process implied by the maximization problem. The model may be conveniently rescued if the maximizing version of the criterion is shunt aside and a boundedly rational interpretation is given. The resulting ‘mixed strategy’, currently in use by many real-life decision makers, opens up terrain to a fruitful cooperation between bounded and unbounded rationality. This paper is consistent with a fluid and nondichotomous interpretation of dual-process theories.

Suggested Citation

  • Magni, Carlo Alberto, 2007. "Investment decisions, equivalent risk and bounded rationality," MPRA Paper 6073, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:6073
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/6073/1/MPRA_paper_6073.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/7451/1/MPRA_paper_7451.pdf
    File Function: revised version
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13539/1/MPRA_paper_13539.pdf
    File Function: revised version
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13559/1/MPRA_paper_13559.pdf
    File Function: revised version
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13568/1/MPRA_paper_13568.pdf
    File Function: revised version
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13579/1/MPRA_paper_13579.pdf
    File Function: revised version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gigerenzer, Gerd & Todd, Peter M. & ABC Research Group,, 2000. "Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195143812.
    2. Ortmann, Andreas & Gigerenzer, Gerd & Borges, Bernhard & Goldstein, Daniel G., 2008. "The Recognition Heuristic: A Fast and Frugal Way to Investment Choice?," Handbook of Experimental Economics Results, in: Charles R. Plott & Vernon L. Smith (ed.), Handbook of Experimental Economics Results, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 107, pages 993-1003, Elsevier.
    3. Herbert A. Simon, 1955. "A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 69(1), pages 99-118.
    4. Carlo Alberto Magni & Stefano Malagoli & Giovanni Mastroleo, 2006. "An Alternative Approach To Firms' Evaluation: Expert Systems And Fuzzy Logic," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(01), pages 195-225.
    5. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    6. Ravi Jagannathan & Iwan Meier, 2002. "Do We Need CAPM for Capital Budgeting?," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 31(4), Winter.
    7. Carlo Alberto Magni & Giovanni Mastroleo & Marina Vignola & Gisella Facchinetti, 2009. "Strategic options and expert systems: a fruitful marriage," Proyecciones Financieras y Valoración 6122, Master Consultores.
    8. Lawrence H. Summers, 1987. "Investment Incentives and the Discounting of Depreciation Allowances," NBER Chapters, in: The Effects of Taxation on Capital Accumulation, pages 295-304, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Abel, Andrew B., 1990. "Consumption and investment," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 14, pages 725-778, Elsevier.
    10. Magni, C. A. & Mastroleo G. & Facchinetti, G., 2001. "A Fuzzy expert system for solving ReaL-Option decision processes," Fuzzy Economic Review, International Association for Fuzzy-set Management and Economy (SIGEF), vol. 0(2), pages 51-73, November.
    11. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
    12. Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R., 2001. "The theory and practice of corporate finance: evidence from the field," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2-3), pages 187-243, May.
    13. Kent D. Miller & Zur Shapira, 2004. "An empirical test of heuristics and biases affecting real option valuation," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 269-284, March.
    14. John Graham & Campbell Harvey, 2002. "HOW DO CFOs MAKE CAPITAL BUDGETING AND CAPITAL STRUCTURE DECISIONS?," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 15(1), pages 8-23, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Magni, Carlo Alberto, 2004. "Rating and ranking firms with fuzzy expert systems: the case of Camuzzi," MPRA Paper 5889, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Carlo Alberto Magni & Stefano Malagoli & Giovanni Mastroleo, 2006. "An Alternative Approach To Firms' Evaluation: Expert Systems And Fuzzy Logic," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(01), pages 195-225.
    3. Magni, Carlo Alberto, 2007. "Project valuation and investment decisions: CAPM versus arbitrage," MPRA Paper 14525, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Bolton, Patrick & Wang, Neng & Yang, Jinqiang, 2019. "Investment under uncertainty with financial constraints," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    5. Paolo M. Panteghini & Michele Moretto, 2007. "Preemption, Start-Up Decisions and the Firms' Capital Structure," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 4(39), pages 1-14.
    6. Cuypers, I.R.P., 2009. "Essays on equity joint ventures, uncertainty and experience," Other publications TiSEM 8dc79e86-c625-467f-a450-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    7. Luis M. Abadie & José M. Chamorro, 2014. "Valuation of Wind Energy Projects: A Real Options Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(5), pages 1-38, May.
    8. Lin, Tyrone T. & Huang, Shio-Ling, 2011. "Application of the modified Tobin's q to an uncertain energy-saving project with the real options concept," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 408-420, January.
    9. Mahmoud A. Eissa & Boping Tian, 2017. "Lobatto-Milstein Numerical Method in Application of Uncertainty Investment of Solar Power Projects," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-19, January.
    10. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:4:y:2007:i:39:p:1-14 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Carlo Alberto Magni, 2009. "Opportunity Cost, Excess Profit, and Counterfactual Conditionals," Frontiers in Finance and Economics, SKEMA Business School, vol. 6(1), pages 118-154, April.
    12. Tor Brunzell & Eva Liljeblom & Mika Vaihekoski, 2013. "Determinants of capital budgeting methods and hurdle rates in Nordic firms," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 53(1), pages 85-110, March.
    13. Chittenden, Francis & Derregia, Mohsen, 2015. "Uncertainty, irreversibility and the use of ‘rules of thumb’ in capital budgeting," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 225-236.
    14. Frank Silvio Marzano & Enrico Saltari, 1999. "Modern Theories of Investment Decisions A Critical Assessment," Working Papers 57, Sapienza University of Rome, CIDEI.
    15. Driouchi, Tarik & Leseure, Michel & Bennett, David, 2009. "A robustness framework for monitoring real options under uncertainty," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 698-710, June.
    16. Magni, Carlo Alberto, 2005. "Theoretical Flaws In The Use Of The Capm For Investment Decisions," MPRA Paper 6330, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2007.
    17. Steven A. Sharpe & Gustavo A. Suarez, 2013. "The insensitivity of investment to interest rates: Evidence from a survey of CFOs," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Bayraktar, Nihal & Sakellaris, Plutarchos & Vermeulen, Philip, 2005. "Real versus financial frictions to capital investment," Working Paper Series 2005, European Central Bank.
    19. Lin, Xiaoji & Wang, Chong & Wang, Neng & Yang, Jinqiang, 2018. "Investment, Tobin’s q, and interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(3), pages 620-640.
    20. Bayraktar, Nihal & Fofack, Hippolyte, 2007. "Specification of investment functions in Sub-Saharan Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4171, The World Bank.
    21. Bayraktar, Nihal & Sakellaris, Plutarchos & Vermeulen, Philip, 2005. "Real versus financial frictions to capital investment," Working Paper Series 566, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Finance; Investment decisions; Net Present Value; heuristics; bounded rationality; cognition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • B40 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - General
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • A12 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Relation of Economics to Other Disciplines
    • M20 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Economics - - - General
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:6073. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.