IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedawp/89452.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Limited Household Risk Sharing: General Equilibrium Implications for the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Indrajit Mitra
  • Yu Xu

Abstract

We present a theory in which limited risk sharing of idiosyncratic labor income risk plays a key role in determining the dynamics of interest rates. Our production-based model relates the cross-sectional distribution of labor income risk to observable aggregate labor market variables. Our model makes two key predictions. First, it predicts positive risk premia for long-term bonds while simultaneously matching key macroeconomic moments. Second, it predicts a negative correlation between current labor market conditions (as measured by labor market tightness or the job-finding rate) and future bond excess returns. We provide evidence for these predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Indrajit Mitra & Yu Xu, 2020. "Limited Household Risk Sharing: General Equilibrium Implications for the Term Structure of Interest Rates," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2020-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:89452
    DOI: 10.29338/wp2020-20
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.frbatlanta.org/-/media/documents/research/publications/wp/2020/11/09/20-general-equilibrium-implications-for-term-structure-of-interest-rates.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.29338/wp2020-20?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:wop:calsdi:97-23 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Andrés Donangelo, 2014. "Labor Mobility: Implications for Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(3), pages 1321-1346, June.
    3. Robin Greenwood & Dimitri Vayanos, 2014. "Bond Supply and Excess Bond Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(3), pages 663-713.
    4. Scott Joslin & Marcel Priebsch & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2014. "Risk Premiums in Dynamic Term Structure Models with Unspanned Macro Risks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(3), pages 1197-1233, June.
    5. Jermann, Urban J., 2013. "A production-based model for the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 293-306.
    6. Daniele Bianchi & Matthias Büchner & Andrea Tamoni, 2021. "Bond Risk Premiums with Machine Learning [Quadratic term structure models: Theory and evidence]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(2), pages 1046-1089.
    7. Garey Ramey & Wouter J. den Haan & Joel Watson, 2000. "Job Destruction and Propagation of Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 482-498, June.
    8. Frederico Belo & Xiaoji Lin & Santiago Bazdresch, 2014. "Labor Hiring, Investment, and Stock Return Predictability in the Cross Section," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 122(1), pages 129-177.
    9. Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Swanson, Eric T., 2008. "Examining the bond premium puzzle with a DSGE model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages 111-126, October.
    10. Gary Solon & Ryan Michaels & Michael W. L. Elsby, 2009. "The Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 84-110, January.
    11. Ehling, Paul & Gallmeyer, Michael & Heyerdahl-Larsen, Christian & Illeditsch, Philipp, 2018. "Disagreement about inflation and the yield curve," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(3), pages 459-484.
    12. Merz, Monika, 1995. "Search in the labor market and the real business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 269-300, November.
    13. Wachter, Jessica A., 2006. "A consumption-based model of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 365-399, February.
    14. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514.
    15. Pissarides, Christopher A, 1985. "Short-run Equilibrium Dynamics of Unemployment Vacancies, and Real Wages," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 676-690, September.
    16. George M. Constantinides & Anisha Ghosh, 2017. "Asset Pricing with Countercyclical Household Consumption Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(1), pages 415-460, February.
    17. Daron Acemoglu & Kenneth Rogoff & Michael Woodford (ed.), 2007. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2006," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262512009, December.
    18. den Haan, Wouter J., 1995. "The term structure of interest rates in real and monetary economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(5-7), pages 909-940.
    19. Abel, Andrew B., 1999. "Risk premia and term premia in general equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 3-33, February.
    20. Marcus Hagedorn & Iourii Manovskii, 2008. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies Revisited," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1692-1706, September.
    21. Ravi Bansal & Ivan Shaliastovich, 2013. "A Long-Run Risks Explanation of Predictability Puzzles in Bond and Currency Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(1), pages 1-33.
    22. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson, 2012. "The Bond Premium in a DSGE Model with Long-Run Real and Nominal Risks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 105-143, January.
    23. Leonid Kogan & Dimitris Papanikolaou & Noah Stoffman, 2020. "Left Behind: Creative Destruction, Inequality, and the Stock Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(3), pages 855-906.
    24. Joseph Haubrich & George Pennacchi & Peter Ritchken, 2012. "Inflation Expectations, Real Rates, and Risk Premia: Evidence from Inflation Swaps," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(5), pages 1588-1629.
    25. Robert Shimer, 2005. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 25-49, March.
    26. Andrew Y. Chen, 2017. "External Habit in a Production Economy: A Model of Asset Prices and Consumption Volatility Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(8), pages 2890-2932.
    27. Andrew Y. Chen, 2013. "External Habit in a Production Economy," 2013 Papers pch1244, Job Market Papers.
    28. Donaldson, John B. & Johnsen, Thore & Mehra, Rajnish, 1990. "On the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 14(3-4), pages 571-596, October.
    29. Backus, David & Boyarchenko, Nina & Chernov, Mikhail, 2018. "Term structures of asset prices and returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1), pages 1-23.
    30. John H. Cochrane, 1988. "Production Based Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 2776, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Douglas T. Breeden & Robert H. Litzenberger & Tingyan Jia, 2015. "Consumption-Based Asset Pricing, Part 1: Classic Theory and Tests, Measurement Issues, and Limited Participation," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 35-83, December.
    32. Valentin Haddad & David Sraer, 2020. "The Banking View of Bond Risk Premia," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(5), pages 2465-2502, October.
    33. Hengjie Ai & Anmol Bhandari, 2018. "Asset Pricing with Endogenously Uninsurable Tail Risk," Staff Report 570, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    34. Andolfatto, David, 1996. "Business Cycles and Labor-Market Search," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 112-132, March.
    35. Alex Hsu & Erica X. N. Li & Francisco J. Palomino, 2016. "Real and Nominal Equilibrium Yield Curves: Wage Rigidities and Permanent Shocks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-032, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    36. Mortensen, Dale & Pissarides, Christopher, 2011. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 1-19.
    37. Constantinides, George M & Duffie, Darrell, 1996. "Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Consumers," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(2), pages 219-240, April.
    38. David Backus & Mikhail Chernov & Stanley Zin, 2014. "Sources of Entropy in Representative Agent Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(1), pages 51-99, February.
    39. Backus, David K. & Gregory, Allan W. & Zin, Stanley E., 1989. "Risk premiums in the term structure : Evidence from artificial economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 371-399, November.
    40. Michael F. Gallmeyer & Burton Hollifield & Francisco J. Palomino & Stanley E. Zin, 2007. "Arbitrage-free bond pricing with dynamic macroeconomic models," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 89(Jul), pages 305-326.
    41. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2007. "Equilibrium Yield Curves," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2006, Volume 21, pages 389-472, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    42. Anh Le & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2010. "An Equilibrium Term Structure Model with Recursive Preferences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 557-561, May.
    43. Breeden, Douglas T., 1979. "An intertemporal asset pricing model with stochastic consumption and investment opportunities," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 265-296, September.
    44. Sydney C. Ludvigson & Serena Ng, 2009. "Macro Factors in Bond Risk Premia," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(12), pages 5027-5067, December.
    45. repec:oup:rfinst:v:26:y::i:1:p:1-33 is not listed on IDEAS
    46. Dybvig, Philip H. & Ross, Stephen A., 2003. "Arbitrage, state prices and portfolio theory," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 10, pages 605-637, Elsevier.
    47. van Binsbergen, Jules H. & Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Koijen, Ralph S.J. & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan, 2012. "The term structure of interest rates in a DSGE model with recursive preferences," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(7), pages 634-648.
    48. Duffee, Gregory R., 2013. "Bond Pricing and the Macroeconomy," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 907-967, Elsevier.
    49. Peter A. Diamond, 1982. "Wage Determination and Efficiency in Search Equilibrium," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 49(2), pages 217-227.
    50. Kung, Howard, 2015. "Macroeconomic linkages between monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 42-57.
    51. Carolin E. Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira, 2011. "Inflation-Indexed Bonds and the Expectations Hypothesis," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 139-158, December.
    52. Barnichon, Regis, 2010. "Building a composite Help-Wanted Index," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 109(3), pages 175-178, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Howard Kung, 2014. "Macroeconomic linkages between monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates," 2014 Meeting Papers 560, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Kung, Howard, 2015. "Macroeconomic linkages between monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 42-57.
    3. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Jonathan H. Wright, 2012. "Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(2), pages 331-367, June.
    4. Mikhail Simutin & JessieJiaxu Wang & Lars Kuehn, 2014. "A Labor Capital Asset Pricing Model," 2014 Meeting Papers 695, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Eric T. Swanson, 2020. "Implications of Labor Market Frictions for Risk Aversion and Risk Premia," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 194-240, April.
    6. Mitsuru Katagiri, 2018. "Equilibrium Yield Curve, the Phillips Curve, and Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 2018/242, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Andrés Schneider, 2022. "Risk‐Sharing and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(4), pages 2331-2374, August.
    8. Horváth, Ferenc, 2017. "Essays on robust asset pricing," Other publications TiSEM e54d7b33-1f27-4b0e-9f84-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    9. Thien Nguyen, 2019. "Public Debt and the Slope of the Term Structure," 2019 Meeting Papers 957, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Heiberger, Christopher, 2020. "Labor market search, endogenous disasters and the equity premium puzzle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    11. Shigeru Fujita, 2011. "Dynamics of worker flows and vacancies: evidence from the sign restriction approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 89-121, January/F.
    12. Andr? Kurmann & Christopher Otrok, 2013. "News Shocks and the Slope of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2612-2632, October.
    13. Yashiv, Eran, 2007. "Labor search and matching in macroeconomics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1859-1895, November.
    14. Lorenzo Bretscher & Alex Hsu & Andrea Tamoni, 2017. "Level and Volatility Shocks to Fiscal Policy: Term Structure Implications," 2017 Meeting Papers 258, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Roman Sustek, 2021. "Yield curve and the business cycle in conventional times," Discussion Papers 2122, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    16. Domenico Ferraro, 2018. "The Asymmetric Cyclical Behavior of the U.S. Labor Market," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 30, pages 145-162, October.
    17. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Macro‐Finance Models Of Interest Rates And The Economy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(s1), pages 25-52, September.
    18. Michael D. Bauer & James D. Hamilton, 2018. "Robust Bond Risk Premia," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(2), pages 399-448.
    19. Dongho Song, 2017. "Bond Market Exposures to Macroeconomic and Monetary Policy Risks," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(8), pages 2761-2817.
    20. Kuehn Lars-Alexander & Petrosky-Nadeau Nicolas & Zhang Lu, "undated". "An Equilibrium Asset Pricing Model with Labor Market Search," GSIA Working Papers 2010-E63, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    interest rates; nondiversifiable labor income risk; labor market frictions; bond risk premia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • A12 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Relation of Economics to Other Disciplines
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:89452. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Rob Sarwark (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbatus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.