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Inflation-Indexed Bonds and the Expectations Hypothesis

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Author Info

  • Carolin E. Pflueger

    ()
    (Harvard Business School, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts 02163)

  • Luis M. Viceira

    ()
    (Harvard Business School, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts 02163
    National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138)

Abstract

This review empirically analyzes the expectations hypothesis (EH) in inflation-indexed (or real) bonds and in nominal bonds in the United States and in the United Kingdom. We strongly reject the EH in inflation-indexed bonds, and also confirm and update the existing evidence rejecting the EH in nominal bonds. This rejection implies that the risk premium on both real and nominal bonds varies predictably over time. We also find strong evidence that the spread between the nominal and the real bond risk premium, or the breakeven inflation risk premium, also varies over time. We argue that the time variation in real bond risk premia most likely reflects both a changing real interest rate risk premium and a changing liquidity risk premium, and that the variability in the nominal bond risk premia reflects a changing inflation risk premium. We estimate significant time series variability in the magnitude and sign of bond risk premia.

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File URL: http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-financial-102710-144843
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Annual Reviews in its journal Annual Review of Financial Economics.

Volume (Year): 3 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (December)
Pages: 139-158

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Handle: RePEc:anr:refeco:v:3:y:2011:p:139-158

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Related research

Keywords: TIPS; breakeven inflation; return predictability; bond risk premia;

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References

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  1. Buraschi, Andrea & Jiltsov, Alexei, 2005. "Inflation risk premia and the expectations hypothesis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 429-490, February.
  2. Robin Greenwood & Dimitri Vayanos, 2010. "Price Pressure in the Government Bond Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 585-90, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Francisco Palomino & Alex Hsu, 2013. "What do Nominal Rigidities and Monetary Policy tell us about the Real Yield Curve?," 2013 Meeting Papers 50, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Samuel G. Hanson & Jeremy C. Stein, 2012. "Monetary policy and long-term real rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-46, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Kitsul, Yuriy & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "The economics of options-implied inflation probability density functions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 696-711.
  4. Yuriy Kitsul & Jonathan H. Wright, 2012. "The Economics of Options-Implied Inflation Probability Density Functions," NBER Working Papers 18195, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Olesya V. Grishchenko & Joel M. Vanden & Jianing Zhang, 2013. "The informational content of the embedded deflation option in TIPS," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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