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Bayesian group belief

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  • Franz Dietrich
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    Abstract

    If a group is modelled as a single Bayesian agent, what should its beliefs be? I propose an axiomatic model that connects group beliefs to beliefs of the group members. The group members may have different information, different prior beliefs and even different domains (algebras) within which they hold beliefs, accounting for differences in awareness and conceptualisation. As is shown, group beliefs can incorporate all information spread across individuals without individuals having to explicitly communicate their information (that may be too complex or personal to describe, or not describable in principle in the language). The group beliefs derived here take a simple multiplicative form if people's information is independent (and a more complex form if information overlaps arbitrarily). This form contrasts with familiar linear or geometric opinion pooling and the (Pareto) requirement of respecting unanimous beliefs.

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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/29573/
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library in its series LSE Research Online Documents on Economics with number 29573.

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    Date of creation: Oct 2010
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    Publication status: Published in Social Choice and Welfare, October, 2010, 35(4), pp. 595-626. ISSN: 0176-1714
    Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:29573

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    Related research

    Keywords: utility-theory; aggregation; opinion pooling; Bayesianism; axiomatic approach; subjective probability; ISI;

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    Cited by:
    1. Dietrich, Franz & List, Christian, 2014. "Probabilistic Opinion Pooling," MPRA Paper 54806, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Dietrich, Franz & List, Christian, 2013. "Probabilistic opinion pooling generalized Part two: The premise-based approach," MPRA Paper 57254, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jul 2014.
    3. Dietrich, Franz & List, Christian, 2013. "Probabilistic opinion pooling generalized Part one: General agendas," MPRA Paper 57253, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jul 2014.

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