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Decisions with conflicting and imprecise information

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  • Thibault Gajdos

    ()

  • Jean-Christophe Vergnaud

    ()

Abstract

When facing situations involving uncertainty, experts might provide imprecise and conflicting opinions. Recent experiments have shown that decision makers display aversion towards both disagreement among experts and imprecision of information. We provide an axiomatic foundation for a decision criterion that allows one to distinguish on a behavioral basis the decision maker’s attitude towards imprecision and disagreement. This criterion accommodates patterns of preferences observed in experiments that are precluded by two-steps procedures, where information is first aggregated, and then used by the decision maker. This might be seen as an argument for having experts transmitting a more detailed information to the decision maker. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2013

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00355-012-0691-1
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Social Choice and Welfare.

Volume (Year): 41 (2013)
Issue (Month): 2 (July)
Pages: 427-452

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Handle: RePEc:spr:sochwe:v:41:y:2013:i:2:p:427-452

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  1. Gilboa, I. & Samet, D. & Schmeidler, D., 2001. "Utilitarian Aggregation of Beliefs and Tastes," Papers 2001-17, Tel Aviv.
  2. Thibault Gajdos & Jean-Marc Tallon & Jean-Christophe Vergnaud, 2002. "Decision Making with Imprecise Probabilistic Information," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 18-2003, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research, revised May 2003.
  3. Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 571-87, May.
  4. Thibault Gajdos & Jean-Marc Tallon & Jean-Christophe Vergnaud, 2004. "Decision Making with Imprecise Probabilistic Information," Post-Print halshs-00086021, HAL.
  5. Chateauneuf, Alain, 1991. "On the use of capacities in modeling uncertainty aversion and risk aversion," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 343-369.
  6. Thibault Gajdos & Takashi Hayashi & Jean-Marc Tallon & Jean-Christophe Vergnaud, 2008. "Attitude toward imprecise information," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00451982, HAL.
  7. Laure Cabantous & Denis Hilton & Howard Kunreuther & Erwann Michel-Kerjan, 2011. "Is imprecise knowledge better than conflicting expertise? Evidence from insurers’ decisions in the United States," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 211-232, June.
  8. Smithson, Michael, 1999. "Conflict Aversion: Preference for Ambiguity vs Conflict in Sources and Evidence," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 179-198, September.
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  10. Peter A. Morris, 1977. "Combining Expert Judgments: A Bayesian Approach," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(7), pages 679-693, March.
  11. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
  12. Laure Cabantous & Denis Hilton & Howard Kunreuther & Erwann Michel-Kerjan, 2010. "Is Imprecise Knowledge Better than Conflicting Expertise? Evidence from Insurers’ Decisions in the United States," ICBBR Working Papers 7, International Centre for Behavioural Business Research.
  13. John C. Harsanyi, 1955. "Cardinal Welfare, Individualistic Ethics, and Interpersonal Comparisons of Utility," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63, pages 309.
  14. Thibault Gajdos & Jean-Marc Tallon & Jean-Christophe Vergnaud, 2008. "Representation and aggregation of preferences under uncertainty," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00266049, HAL.
  15. Peter A. Morris, 1974. "Decision Analysis Expert Use," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 20(9), pages 1233-1241, May.
  16. Crès, Hervé & Gilboa, Itzhak & Vieille, Nicolas, 2011. "Aggregation of multiple prior opinions," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(6), pages 2563-2582.
  17. Thibault Gajdos & Takashi Hayashi & Jean-Marc Tallon & Jean-Christophe Vergnaud, 2008. "Attitude toward imprecise information," Post-Print halshs-00451982, HAL.
  18. Itzhak Gilboa & Nicolas Vieille & Hervé Crès, 2011. "Aggregation of multiple prior opinions," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompq, Sciences Po.
  19. Laure Cabantous, 2007. "Ambiguity Aversion in the Field of Insurance: Insurers’ Attitude to Imprecise and Conflicting Probability Estimates," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 219-240, May.
  20. Chambers, Christopher P. & Echenique, Federico, 2012. "When does aggregation reduce risk aversion?," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 582-595.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Nascimento, Leandro, 2012. "The ex-ante aggregation of opinions under uncertainty," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 7(3), September.
  2. Théodora Dupont-Courtade, 2012. "Insurance demand under ambiguity and conflict for extreme risks : Evidence from a large representative survey," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00718642, HAL.
  3. Itzhak Gilboa & Nicolas Vieille & Hervé Crès, 2011. "Aggregation of multiple prior opinions," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompq, Sciences Po.
  4. Hill, Brian, 2012. "Unanimity and the aggregation of multiple prior opinions," Les Cahiers de Recherche 959, HEC Paris.
  5. Aurélien Baillon & Laure Cabantous & Peter Wakker, 2012. "Aggregating imprecise or conflicting beliefs: An experimental investigation using modern ambiguity theories," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 115-147, April.
  6. Laure Cabantous & Denis Hilton & Howard Kunreuther & Erwann Michel-Kerjan, 2011. "Is imprecise knowledge better than conflicting expertise? Evidence from insurers’ decisions in the United States," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 211-232, June.
  7. Jean Desrochers & J. Francois Outreville, 2013. "Uncertainty, Ambiguity and Risk Taking: an experimental investigation of consumer behavior and demand for insurance," ICER Working Papers 10-2013, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
  8. Théodora Dupont-Courtade, 2012. "Insurance demand under ambiguity and conflict for extreme risks: Evidence from a large representative survey," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 12020, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.

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