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Opinion Pooling under Asymmetric Information

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Author Info

  • Franz Dietrich

    (University of Konstanz, Center for Junior Research Fellows)

Abstract

If each member of a group assigns a certain probability to a hypothesis, what probability should the collective as a whole assign? More generally, how should individual probability functions be merged into a single collective one? I investigate this question in case that the individual probability functions are based on different information sets. Under suitable assumptions, I present a simple solution to this aggregation problem, and a more complex solution that can cope with any overlaps between different persons' information sets. The solutions are derived from an axiomatic system that models the individuals as well as the collective as Bayesian rational agents. Two notable features are that the solutions may be parameter-free, and that they incorporate each individual's information although the individuals need not communicate their (perhaps very complex) information, but rather reveal only the resulting probabilities.

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File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/pe/papers/0407/0407002.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Public Economics with number 0407002.

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Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: 04 Jul 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwppe:0407002

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 20. prepared from latex-dvi
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

Related research

Keywords: opinion pooling; probability aggregation; decision theory; social choice theory; Bayesian rationality; Bayesian aggregation; information;

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Cited by:
  1. Dietrich, Franz, 2008. "Bayesian Group Belief," Research Memorandum 046, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).

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