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Bayesian group belief

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  • Franz Dietrich

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Abstract

If a group is modelled as a single Bayesian agent, what should its beliefs be? I propose an axiomatic model that connects group beliefs to beliefs of group members, who are themselves modelled as Bayesian agents, possibly with different priors and different information. Group beliefs are proven to take a simple multiplicative form if people''s information is independent, and a more complex form if information overlaps arbitrarily. This shows that group beliefs can incorporate all information spread over the individuals without the individuals having to communicate their (possibly complex and hard-to-describe) private information; communicating prior and posterior beliefs suffices.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Social Choice and Welfare.

Volume (Year): 35 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 595-626

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Handle: RePEc:spr:sochwe:v:35:y:2010:i:4:p:595-626

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References

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  1. Pivato, Marcus, 2008. "The Discursive Dilemma and Probabilistic Judgement Aggregation," MPRA Paper 8412, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. MONGIN, Philippe, 1993. "Consistent Bayesian Aggregation," CORE Discussion Papers 1993019, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  3. Franz Dietrich, 2004. "Opinion Pooling under Asymmetric Information," Public Economics 0407002, EconWPA.
  4. Dietrich, Franz & List, Christian, 2007. "Opinion pooling on general agendas," Research Memorandum 038, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Dietrich, Franz & List, Christian & Bradley, Richard, 2012. "A Joint Characterization of Belief Revision Rules," MPRA Paper 41240, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Aurélien Baillon & Laure Cabantous & Peter Wakker, 2012. "Aggregating imprecise or conflicting beliefs: An experimental investigation using modern ambiguity theories," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 115-147, April.
  3. Dietrich, Franz & List, Christian, 2013. "Probabilistic opinion pooling generalized Part two: The premise-based approach," MPRA Paper 57254, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jul 2014.
  4. Dietrich, Franz & List, Christian, 2013. "Probabilistic opinion pooling generalized Part one: General agendas," MPRA Paper 57253, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jul 2014.
  5. Dietrich, Franz & List, Christian, 2014. "Probabilistic Opinion Pooling," MPRA Paper 54806, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Dietrich, Franz & List, Christian, 2008. "The aggregation of propositional attitudes: towards a general theory," Research Memorandum 047, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  7. Christian List, 2010. "The theory of judgment aggregation: an introductory review," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 27596, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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