Bayesian group belief
AbstractIf a group is modelled as a single Bayesian agent, what should its beliefs be? I propose an axiomatic model that connects group beliefs to beliefs of the group members. The group members may have different information, different prior beliefs and even different domains (algebras) within which they hold beliefs, accounting for differences in awareness and conceptualisation. As is shown, group beliefs can incorporate all information spread across individuals without individuals having to explicitly communicate their information (that may be too complex or personal to describe, or not describable in principle in the language). The group beliefs derived here take a simple multiplicative form if people's information is independent (and a more complex form if information overlaps arbitrarily). This form contrasts with familiar linear or geometric opinion pooling and the (Pareto) requirement of respecting unanimous beliefs.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Springer in its journal Social Choice and Welfare.
Volume (Year): 35 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
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Web page: http://link.springer.de/link/service/journals/00355/index.htm
Other versions of this item:
- Dietrich, Franz, 2010. "Bayesian group belief," Open Access publications from London School of Economics and Political Science http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/, London School of Economics and Political Science.
- Dietrich, Franz, 2008. "Bayesian Group Belief," Research Memoranda 046, Maastricht : METEOR, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization.
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- Dietrich, Franz & List, Christian, 2007. "Opinion pooling on general agendas," Research Memoranda 038, Maastricht : METEOR, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization.
- Mongin Philippe, 1995.
"Consistent Bayesian Aggregation,"
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- Franz Dietrich, 2004. "Opinion Pooling under Asymmetric Information," Public Economics 0407002, EconWPA.
- Pivato, Marcus, 2008. "The Discursive Dilemma and Probabilistic Judgement Aggregation," MPRA Paper 8412, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Dietrich, Franz & List, Christian & Bradley, Richard, 2012. "A Joint Characterization of Belief Revision Rules," MPRA Paper 41240, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Dietrich, Franz & List, Christian, 2008. "The aggregation of propositional attitudes: towards a general theory," Research Memoranda 047, Maastricht : METEOR, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization.
- Aurélien Baillon & Laure Cabantous & Peter Wakker, 2012. "Aggregating imprecise or conflicting beliefs: An experimental investigation using modern ambiguity theories," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 115-147, April.
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