On the Determination of Subjective Probability by Choices
AbstractThe paper explores the uniqueness properties of the subjective probabilities in two axiomatizations of state-dependent preferences. Karni, Schmeidler, and Vind's (KSV 1983) system depends on selecting an arbitrary auxiliary probability, and as such, does not guarantee the uniqueness of the derived subjective probability. However, an axiom system initially designed by Karni and Schmeidler (KS 1981) and further elaborated upon here does guarantee the desired uniqueness as well as a useful property of "stability" of the derived solution. When the preference relation displays state-independence, even the KS probabilities may not agree with those derived from the classic Anscombe-Aumann (AA 1963) theorem. However, we claim that, in this case, the KS rather than the AA probabilities are the appropriate representation of the agent's beliefs.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by INFORMS in its journal Management Science.
Volume (Year): 46 (2000)
Issue (Month): 2 (February)
subjective probability; subjective expected utility; state-dependent utility;
Other versions of this item:
- Karni, E. & Mongin, P., 1997. "On the Determination of Subjective Probability by Choices," Papers 9737, Paris X - Nanterre, U.F.R. de Sc. Ec. Gest. Maths Infor..
- E. Karni & Ph. Mongin, 1997. "On the determination of subjective probability by choices," THEMA Working Papers 97-37, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
- D11 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Theory
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- Sadowski, Philipp, 2008. "Conditional Preference for Flexibility: Eliciting Beliefs from Behavior," MPRA Paper 8614, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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