IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ehl/lserod/111593.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Divisive jobs: three facets of risk, precarity, and redistribution

Author

Listed:
  • Pahontu, Raluca L.

Abstract

A central challenge in understanding public opinion shifts is identifying whose opinions change. Political economists try to uncover this by exploring voters' economic vulnerability, particularly the relationship between labor-market risk and redistribution preferences. Predominantly, however, such work imputes risk from occupational or sectoral characteristics. Due to within-occupational inequality in exposure to risk, considerable variation remains unexplored. I propose an individual-level, dynamic account of risk inferred from job tenure, contract type, and expectations of job security. These aspects, importantly, account for individual variation in risk and the possibility that one's experience of risk may change across time. The results indicate the usefulness of this approach to risk in understanding changes in social spending preferences.

Suggested Citation

  • Pahontu, Raluca L., 2022. "Divisive jobs: three facets of risk, precarity, and redistribution," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 111593, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:111593
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/111593/
    File Function: Open access version.
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson & Kaveh Majlesi, 2020. "Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(10), pages 3139-3183, October.
    2. Margalit, Yotam, 2013. "Explaining Social Policy Preferences: Evidence from the Great Recession," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 107(1), pages 80-103, February.
    3. Ruben Gaetani & Matthias Doepke, 2016. "Employment Protection, Investment in Job-Specific Skills, and Inequality Trends in the United States and Europe," 2016 Meeting Papers 539, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Wolfgang Dauth & Sebastian Findeisen & Enrico Moretti & Jens Suedekum, 2022. "Matching in Cities," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 1478-1521.
    5. Mark Egan & Gregor Matvos & Amit Seru, 2022. "When Harry Fired Sally: The Double Standard in Punishing Misconduct," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(5), pages 1184-1248.
    6. John Ahlquist & Mark Copelovitch & Stefanie Walter, 2020. "The Political Consequences of External Economic Shocks: Evidence from Poland," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 64(4), pages 904-920, October.
    7. Alan Manning & Barbara Petrongolo, 2017. "How Local Are Labor Markets? Evidence from a Spatial Job Search Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(10), pages 2877-2907, October.
    8. Adrien Bilal & Esteban Rossi‐Hansberg, 2021. "Location as an Asset," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(5), pages 2459-2495, September.
    9. Jorge De La Roca & Diego Puga, 2017. "Learning by Working in Big Cities," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 84(1), pages 106-142.
    10. Adams-Prassl, Abi & Boneva, Teodora & Golin, Marta & Rauh, Christopher, 2020. "Inequality in the impact of the coronavirus shock: Evidence from real time surveys," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    11. Brad Hershbein & Lisa B. Kahn, 2018. "Do Recessions Accelerate Routine-Biased Technological Change? Evidence from Vacancy Postings," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(7), pages 1737-1772, July.
    12. Pettinicchi, Yuri & Vellekoop, Nathanael, 2019. "Job loss expectations, durable consumption and household finances: Evidence from linked survey data," SAFE Working Paper Series 249, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    13. Michael Greenstone & Richard Hornbeck & Enrico Moretti, 2010. "Identifying Agglomeration Spillovers: Evidence from Winners and Losers of Large Plant Openings," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(3), pages 536-598, June.
    14. Benjamin Moll & Lukasz Rachel & Pascual Restrepo, 2022. "Uneven Growth: Automation's Impact on Income and Wealth Inequality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(6), pages 2645-2683, November.
    15. Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2020. "How Do Expectations about the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 731-748, October.
    16. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Tiziano Ropele, 2020. "Inflation Expectations and Firm Decisions: New Causal Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(1), pages 165-219.
    17. Tito Boeri & Andrea Ichino & Enrico Moretti & Johanna Posch, 2021. "Wage Equalization and Regional Misallocation: Evidence from Italian and German Provinces [“Regional Wage Disparities and Migration.”]," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(6), pages 3249-3292.
    18. Benjamin Austin & Edward Glaeser & Lawrence Summers, 2018. "Jobs for the Heartland: Place-Based Policies in 21st-Century America," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(1 (Spring), pages 151-255.
    19. Hashimoto, Masanori, 1981. "Firm-Specific Human Capital as a Shared Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 475-482, June.
    20. Maarten Goos & Alan Manning & Anna Salomons, 2014. "Explaining Job Polarization: Routine-Biased Technological Change and Offshoring," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(8), pages 2509-2526, August.
    21. Jensen, Amalie & Marble, William & Scheve, Kenneth & Slaughter, Matthew J., 2021. "City limits to partisan polarization in the American public," Political Science Research and Methods, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(2), pages 223-241, April.
    22. David H. Autor & Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane, 2003. "The skill content of recent technological change: an empirical exploration," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    23. Nicholas Bloom & Mirko Draca & John Van Reenen, 2016. "Trade Induced Technical Change? The Impact of Chinese Imports on Innovation, IT and Productivity," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 83(1), pages 87-117.
    24. Keith Bender & Peter Sloane, 1999. "Trade union membership, tenure and the level of job insecurity," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 123-135.
    25. Anthony Atkinson & Timothy Smeeding & Lee Rainwater, 1994. "Income Distribution in European Countries," LIS Working papers 121, LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.
    26. John J. Conlon & Laura Pilossoph & Matthew Wiswall & Basit Zafar, 2018. "Labor Market Search With Imperfect Information and Learning," Working Papers 2018-068, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    27. Claudia Macaluso, 2017. "Skill Remoteness and Post-layoff Labor Market Outcomes," 2017 Meeting Papers 569, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    28. Timothy J. Bartik & Nathan Sotherland, 2019. "Local Job Multipliers in the United States: Variation with Local Characteristics and with High-Tech Shocks," Upjohn Working Papers 19-301, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    29. Florence Lebert & Erika Antal, 2016. "Reducing Employment Insecurity," SAGE Open, , vol. 6(4), pages 21582440166, October.
    30. Bradley Setzler & Felix Tintelnot, 2021. "The Effects of Foreign Multinationals on Workers and Firms in the United States," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(3), pages 1943-1991.
    31. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-2168, October.
    32. Lawrence F. Katz & Alan B. Krueger, 2016. "The Rise and Nature of Alternative Work Arrangements in the United States, 1995-2015," NBER Working Papers 22667, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Berger, Thor & Chen, Chinchih & Frey, Carl Benedikt, 2018. "Drivers of disruption? Estimating the Uber effect," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 197-210.
    34. Walter, Stefanie, 2017. "Globalization and the Demand-Side of Politics: How Globalization Shapes Labor Market Risk Perceptions and Policy Preferences," Political Science Research and Methods, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(1), pages 55-80, January.
    35. Pedro S. Martins, 2009. "Dismissals for Cause: The Difference That Just Eight Paragraphs Can Make," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(2), pages 257-279, April.
    36. Caggese, Andrea & Cuñat, Vicente & Metzger, Daniel, 2019. "Firing the wrong workers: Financing constraints and labor misallocation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(3), pages 589-607.
    37. Patrick Kline & Enrico Moretti, 2014. "People, Places, and Public Policy: Some Simple Welfare Economics of Local Economic Development Programs," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 629-662, August.
    38. Iversen, Torben & Soskice, David, 2001. "An Asset Theory of Social Policy Preferences," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 95(4), pages 875-893, December.
    39. Meltzer, Allan H & Richard, Scott F, 1981. "A Rational Theory of the Size of Government," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 914-927, October.
    40. Michael Amior & Alan Manning, 2018. "The Persistence of Local Joblessness," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(7), pages 1942-1970, July.
    41. Brad J. Hershbein & Bryan A. Stuart, 2020. "Recessions and Local Labor Market Hysteresis," Upjohn Working Papers 20-325, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    42. Dickerson, Andy & Green, Francis, 2012. "Fears and realisations of employment insecurity," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 198-210.
    43. Rainer, Helmut & Siedler, Thomas, 2008. "Subjective income and employment expectations and preferences for redistribution," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 449-453, June.
    44. Melvin Stephens, 2004. "Job Loss Expectations, Realizations, and Household Consumption Behavior," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 253-269, February.
    45. Martin Browning & Pierre-André Chiappori & Arthur Lewbel, 2013. "Estimating Consumption Economies of Scale, Adult Equivalence Scales, and Household Bargaining Power," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(4), pages 1267-1303.
    46. Rueda, David, 2007. "Social Democracy Inside Out: Partisanship and Labor Market Policy in Advanced Industrialized Democracies," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199234059.
    47. Gary S. Becker, 1962. "Investment in Human Capital: A Theoretical Analysis," NBER Chapters, in: Investment in Human Beings, pages 9-49, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    48. Barry T. Hirsch, 2008. "Sluggish Institutions in a Dynamic World: Can Unions and Industrial Competition Coexist?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 153-176, Winter.
    49. Marx, Paul & Picot, Georg, 2020. "Three approaches to labor-market vulnerability and political preferences," Political Science Research and Methods, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(2), pages 356-361, April.
    50. Barr, Nicholas, 2001. "The Welfare State as Piggy Bank: Information, Risk, Uncertainty, and the Role of the State," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246595.
    51. Henry G. Overman & Diego Puga, 2002. "Unemployment clusters across Europe's regions and countries [‘Regional evolutions’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 17(34), pages 115-148.
    52. Patrick Coate & Kyle Mangum, 2019. "Fast Locations and Slowing Labor Mobility," Working Papers 19-49, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    53. Romer, Thomas, 1975. "Individual welfare, majority voting, and the properties of a linear income tax," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 163-185, February.
    54. Lawrence F. Katz & Alan B. Krueger, 2017. "The Role of Unemployment in the Rise in Alternative Work Arrangements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 388-392, May.
    55. Nicolas L. Bottan & Ricardo Perez-Truglia, 2020. "Betting on the House: Subjective Expectations and Market Choices," NBER Working Papers 27412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    56. Lee Rainwater & Anthony Atkinson & Timothy Smeeding, 1994. "Income Distribution in Advanced Economies: The Evidence from the Luxembourg Income Study (LIS)," LIS Working papers 120, LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.
    57. von Below, David & Thoursie, Peter Skogman, 2010. "Last in, first out?: Estimating the effect of seniority rules in Sweden," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 987-997, December.
    58. David Rueda & Daniel Stegmueller, 2016. "The Externalities of Inequality: Fear of Crime and Preferences for Redistribution in Western Europe," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 60(2), pages 472-489, April.
    59. Nathaniel Hendren, 2017. "Knowledge of Future Job Loss and Implications for Unemployment Insurance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(7), pages 1778-1823, July.
    60. Ansell, Ben, 2014. "The Political Economy of Ownership: Housing Markets and the Welfare State," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 108(2), pages 383-402, May.
    61. Albrecht Glitz, 2012. "The Labor Market Impact of Immigration: A Quasi-Experiment Exploiting Immigrant Location Rules in Germany," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 175-213.
    62. Kenneth Scheve & Matthew J. Slaughter, 2004. "Economic Insecurity and the Globalization of Production," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(4), pages 662-674, October.
    63. David N.F. Bell & David G. Blanchflower, 2018. "Underemployment in the US and Europe," NBER Working Papers 24927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    64. Steven J. Davis & Till Von Wachter, 2011. "Recessions and the Costs of Job Loss," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(2 (Fall)), pages 1-72.
    65. Baderin, Alice & Barnes, Lucy, 2020. "Risk and Self-Respect," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(4), pages 1419-1437, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nils Braakmann, 2018. "Company Closures and the Erosion of the Political Centre: Evidence from Germany," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 56(4), pages 835-858, December.
    2. Verdugo, Gregory & Allègre, Guillaume, 2020. "Labour force participation and job polarization: Evidence from Europe during the Great Recession," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4igrl22i129kl9t3bjsriribbs is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Janssen, Simon & Mohrenweiser, Jens, 2018. "The Shelf Life of Incumbent Workers during Accelerating Technological Change: Evidence from a Training Regulation Reform," IZA Discussion Papers 11312, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Georg Graetz & Guy Michaels, 2017. "Is Modern Technology Responsible for Jobless Recoveries?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 168-173, May.
    6. Jordy Meekes & Wolter H. J. Hassink, 2023. "Endogenous local labour markets, regional aggregation and agglomeration economies," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(1), pages 13-25, January.
    7. Blanas, Sotiris & Oikonomou, Rigas, 2023. "COVID-induced economic uncertainty, tasks and occupational demand," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    8. Jin, Olivia & Pyle, William, 2023. "Labor market hardships and preferences for public sector employment and employers: Evidence from Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 577-591.
    9. Redding, Stephen, 2020. "Trade and Geography," CEPR Discussion Papers 15268, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Krolikowski, Pawel & Zabek, Mike & Coate, Patrick, 2020. "Parental proximity and earnings after job displacements," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    11. Andreas Beerli & Ronald Indergand & Johannes S. Kunz, 2023. "The supply of foreign talent: how skill-biased technology drives the location choice and skills of new immigrants," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(2), pages 681-718, April.
    12. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson, 2021. "On the Persistence of the China Shock," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 52(2 (Fall)), pages 381-476.
    13. Goos, Maarten & Rademakers, Emilie & Salomons, Anna & Willekens, Bert, 2019. "Markets for jobs and their task overlap," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    14. Patrick Bennett & Aline Bütikofer & Kjell G. Salvanes & Darina Steskal, 2022. "Changes in Urban Wages, Jobs, and Workers from 1958-2017," CESifo Working Paper Series 9766, CESifo.
    15. Lerche, Adrian, 2022. "Investment Tax Credits and the Response of Firms," IZA Discussion Papers 15668, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Adrian Chadi & Laszlo Goerke, 2023. "Seeking shelter in times of crisis? unemployment, perceived job insecurity and trade union membership," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(359), pages 1041-1088, July.
    17. Barth, Erling & Finseraas, Henning & Kjelsrud, Anders & Moene, Kalle, 2023. "Openness and the welfare state: risk and income effects in protection without protectionism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    18. Schran, Felix, 2019. "Locational Choice and Spatial Wage Inequality," IZA Discussion Papers 12660, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Jeffrey, Karen, 2021. "Automation and the future of work: How rhetoric shapes the response in policy preferences," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 192(C), pages 417-433.
    20. Boddin, Dominik & Kroeger, Thilo, 2021. "Structural change revisited: The rise of manufacturing jobs in the service sector," Discussion Papers 38/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    21. Nils Braakmann & Wessel N. Vermeulen, 2023. "Do mass layoffs affect voting behaviour? Evidence from the UK," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 61(4), pages 922-950, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    comparative political economy; quantitative methods; CUP deal;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns
    • J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:111593. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: LSERO Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lsepsuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.