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Integrated monetary and exchange rate frameworks: are there empirical differences?

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Author Info
Lucio Vinhas de Souza ()

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Abstract

The aim of the paper is to empirically estimate whether the different monetary and exchange rate frameworks observed in the accession countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the Baltic States do yield different outcomes in terms of level and variance of a set of nominal and real variables. The author follows and extends the methodology developed by Kuttner and Posen (2001), who perform a combined analysis of the individual effects of exchange rate regimes, central bank independence and announced targets in nominal variables for a large set of developed and developing countries. They also estimate that a set-up combining a free float, an independent currency board and inflation targeting yields an outcome that mimics the price stabilisation advantages of a hard peg without its drawbacks in terms of extreme volatility. This sample of countries, not covered by the Kuttner and Posen study, supports their conclusions for both nominal and real variables, testing for both the individual and combined effects of the frameworks and indicating that a flexible exchange rate regime, coupled with CBI and DIT, would be Pareto-improving when compared to harder regimes.

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Paper provided by Bank of Estonia in its series Bank of Estonia Working Papers with number 2002-2.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: 11 Oct 2002
Date of revision: 12 Oct 2002
Publication status: published
Handle: RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2002-02

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
  2. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-89, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Adam S. Posen, 2001. "Beyond Bipolar: A Three-Dimensional Assessment of Monetary Frameworks," Working Papers 52, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Vivek B. Arora & Olivier Jeanne, . "Economic Integration and the Exchange Rate Regime: Some Lessons from Canada," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 01/1, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Robert F. Westcott & Peter F. Christoffersen, 1999. "Is Poland Ready for Inflation Targeting?," IMF Working Papers 99/41, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Staff Team, 2001. "Labor Markets in Hard-Peg Accession Countries: The Baltics and Bulgaria," IMF Staff Country Reports 01/100, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Svensson, Lars E O, 1995. "Optimal Inflation Targets, 'Conservative' Central Banks, and Linear Inflation Contracts," CEPR Discussion Papers 1249, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1984. "Rules, Discretion and Reputation in a Model of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 1079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Loungani, Prakash & Sheets, Nathan, 1997. "Central Bank Independence, Inflation, and Growth in Transition Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 381-99, August.
    Other versions:
  10. Walsh, Carl E, 1995. "Optimal Contracts for Central Bankers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 150-67, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Daniel Gros & Marc Suhrcke, 2000. "Ten Years After: What is Special about Transition Countries?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  12. Cukierman, Alex & Miller, Geoffrey P. & Neyapti, Bilin, 2002. "Central bank reform, liberalization and inflation in transition economies--an international perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 237-264, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1997. "Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 753-760, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. de Haan, Jakob & Berger, Helge & van Fraassen, Erik, 2001. "How to reduce inflation: an independent central bank or a currency board? The experience of the Baltic countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 218-243, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Anne Marie Gulde & Juha Kähkönen & Peter Keller, 2000. "Pros and Cons of Currency Board Arrangements in the Lead-Up to EU Accession and Participation in the Euro Zone," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 00/1, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Hélène Poirson, . "How Do Countries Choose Their Exchange Rate Regime?," IMF Working Papers 01/46, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  17. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2001. "From inflation targeting to the euro-peg: A model of monetary convergence for transition economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 233-251, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Mark Hallerberg & Lúcio Vinhas de Souza, 2000. "The Political Business Cycles of EU Accession Countries," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 00-085/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  20. Guy Debelle, 1997. "Inflation Targeting in Practice," IMF Working Papers 97/35, International Monetary Fund.
  21. Gros, Daniel & Suhrcke, Marc, 2000. "Ten Years After: What Is Special about Transition Countries?," Discussion Paper Series 26236, Hamburg Institute of International Economics. [Downloadable!]
  22. Lucio Vinhas de Souza & Holger van Eden & Albert de Groot & Gerbert Romijn & Elisabeth Ledrut, 2001. "EMU and Enlargement: A Review of Policy Issues," Macroeconomics 0012019, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Bruno Merlevede & Joseph Plasmans & Bas van Aarle, 2003. "A Small Macroeconomic Model of the EU-Accession Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 221-250, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Przemek Kowalski & Wojciech Paczynski & Lukasz Rawdanowicz, 2003. "Exchange rate regimes and the real sector: a sectoral analysis of CEE Countries," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 533-555, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Rolf J. Langhammer & Rainer Schweickert, 2006. "EU Integration and its Implications for Asian Economies – What we Know and What Not," Kiel Working Papers 1264, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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