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A Small Macroeconomic Model of the EU-Accession Countries

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  • Bruno Merlevede
  • Joseph Plasmans

    ()

  • Bas van Aarle

Abstract

This paper develops a small macro-economic model of the CEECs to analyze various aspects of integration with the current EU and the role of monetary and exchange rate strategies during the (pre-) accession phase. The model gives insight into both the adjustment of the internal balance (as for output and employment) and the external balance (as for exports and competitiveness) in the accession countries. The model provides more insight into the basic macroeconomic relationships governing macroeconomic adjustment in the accession countries and also the role of the integration with the EU in that adjustment. We perform empirical simulations of different scenarios and analyze the resulting macroeconomic adjustment. In particular, we compare how a macroeconomic shock in the current EU is transmitted to the accession countries under flexible and fixed euro exchange rates, respectively. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2003

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Open Economies Review.

Volume (Year): 14 (2003)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 221-250

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Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:14:y:2003:i:3:p:221-250

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100323

Related research

Keywords: EU accession; macroeconomic modeling; macroeconomic policy;

References

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  1. Lucio Vinhas de Souza, 2002. "Integrated monetary and exchange rate frameworks: are there empirical differences?," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2002-2, Bank of Estonia, revised 12 Oct 2002.
  2. Bofinger, Peter & Wollmershauser, Timo, 2001. "Is there a third way to EMU for the EU accession countries?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 253-274, September.
  3. Ray Fair, 2001. "Estimates of the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm205, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Aug 2007.
  4. Hall, Stephen & Mizon, Grayham E. & Welfe, Aleksander, 2000. "Modelling economies in transition: an introduction," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 339-357, August.
  5. Douven, R. C. & Plasmans, J. E. J., 1996. "SLIM, a small linear interdependent model of eight EU-member states, the USA and Japan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 185-233, April.
  6. Arratibel, Olga & Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego & Thimann, Christian, 2002. "Inflation dynamics and dual inflation in accession countries: a 'New Keynesian' perspective," Working Paper Series 0132, European Central Bank.
  7. Schoors, Koen, 2002. " Should the Central and Eastern European Accession Countries Adopt the Euro before or after Accession?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 47-77.
  8. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2001. "From inflation targeting to the euro-peg: A model of monetary convergence for transition economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 233-251, September.
  9. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  10. Jusczak, Grazyna & Kazmierska, Maria Magdalena & Lapinska-Sobczak, Nina & Welfe, Wladyslaw, 1993. "Quarterly model of the polish economy in transition (with special emphasis on financial flows)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 127-149, April.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Su, Chi-Wei & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Liu, Lin, 2012. "Real interest rate parity with Flexible Fourier stationary test for Central and Eastern European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2719-2723.
  2. Tomáš Slacík & Katharina Steiner & Julia Wörz, 2014. "Can Trade Partners Help Better FORCEE the Future? Impact of Trade Linkages on Economic Growth Forecasts in Selected CESEE Countries," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 36-56.
  3. Alexandra Lopes, 2006. "The Costs of EMU for Transition Countries," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 149, Society for Computational Economics.
  4. Marilena Giannetti, 2005. "Macroeconomic Effects In the Acceding Countries," Working Papers 87, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Public Economics.
  5. Jiang, Chun & Li, Xiao-Lin & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Su, Chi-Wei, 2013. "Uncovered interest parity and risk premium convergence in Central and Eastern European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 204-208.
  6. Federico Ravenna & Giovanni Lombardo, 2009. "Trade and Optimal Monetary Policy," 2009 Meeting Papers 784, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  7. Holtemöller, Oliver, 2003. "Uncovered Interest Rate Parity and Analysis of Monetary Convergence of Potential EMU Accession Countries," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2003,40, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  8. Liu, Yan & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Su, Chi-Wei, 2013. "Do real interest rates converge across East Asian countries based on China?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 467-473.
  9. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Jarko Fidrmuc & Maria Silgoner, 2008. "Fundamentals, the exchange rate and prospects for the current and future EU enlargements: evidence from Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania and Turkey," Empirica, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 195-211, April.
  10. Liu, Lin & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Su, Chi-Wei & Jiang, Chun, 2013. "Real interest rate parity in East Asian countries based on China with flexible Fourier stationary test," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25, pages 52-58.

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