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Exchange Rate Regimes and the Real Sector: a Sectoral Analysis of CEE Countries

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  • Przemek Kowalski
  • Wojciech Paczynski
  • Lukasz Rawdanowicz

Abstract

This paper analyses the impact of exchange rate regimes on the real sector. While most studies in this field have so far concentrated on aggregate variables, we pursue a sectoral approach distinguishing between the tradable and nontradable sectors. Firstly, we present a survey of the relevant theoretical and empirical literature. This demonstrates that evaluations of exchange rate regimes and their impact on the real economy are largely dependant on specific assumptions concerning, in particular, the parameters of a utility function, the nature of the price adjustment process and the characteristics of analysed shocks. Secondly, we conduct an empirical analysis of the behaviour of the tradable and nontradable sectors under different exchange rate regimes for seven Central and Eastern European countries. We find no firm evidence of a differential impact of given exchange rate regimes on the dynamics of output and prices in the two sectors. We proffer a conceptual and technical interpretation of this.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research in its series CASE Network Studies and Analyses with number 0248.

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Length: 42 Pages
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:sec:cnstan:0248

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Keywords: exchange rate regimes; Central and Eastern European countries; dynamic panels;

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References

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  1. Luca Dedola & Sylvain Leduc, 2002. "Why are business cycles alike across exchange-rate regimes?," Working Papers 02-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  2. Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Fixing exchange rates A virtual quest for fundamentals," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-37, August.
  3. Michael B. Devereux & Philip Lane, 2001. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy in Emerging Market Economies," Trinity Economics Papers 200111, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  4. Baxter, Marianne & Stockman, Alan C., 1989. "Business cycles and the exchange-rate regime : Some international evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 377-400, May.
  5. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May.
  6. Lane, P.R. & Ganelli, G., 2002. "Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis: The Open Economy Dimension," CEG Working Papers 20026, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  7. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring.
  8. Pedroni, Peter, 1999. " Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-70, Special I.
  9. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  10. repec:cto:journl:v:20:y:2000:i:1:p:115-122 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Dehejia, Vivek & Rowe, Nicholas, 2000. "Macroeconomic Stabilization: Fixed Exchange Rates Vs Inflation Targeting Vs Price Level Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 2460, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Ramana Ramaswamy & Torsten Sløk, 1997. "The Real Effects of Monetary Policy in the European Union," IMF Working Papers 97/160, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Stockman, Alan C., 1999. "Choosing an exchange-rate system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(10), pages 1483-1498, October.
  14. Lane, Philip R., 2001. "The new open economy macroeconomics: a survey," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 235-266, August.
  15. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2005. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1603-1635, August.
  16. Hau, Harald, 2002. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Openness: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(3), pages 611-30, August.
  17. Cedric Tille, 2002. "How valuable is exchange rate flexibility? Optimal monetary policy under sectoral shocks," Staff Reports 147, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  18. Lucio Vinhas de Souza, 2002. "Integrated monetary and exchange rate frameworks: are there empirical differences?," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2002-2, Bank of Estonia, revised 12 Oct 2002.
  19. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  20. Hau, Harald, 2000. "Exchange rate determination: The role of factor price rigidities and nontradeables," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 421-447, April.
  21. Leland B. Yeager, 2000. "Exchange Rates between What Sorts of Currencies?," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 20(1), Spring/Su.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Przemek Kowalski, 2003. "Nominal and Real Convergence in Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes in Transition Countries: Implications for the EMU Accession," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0270, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  2. Monika Blaszkiewicz & Przemek Kowalski & Lukasz Rawdanowicz & Przemyslaw Wozniak, 2004. "Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Effect in Selected Countries of Central and Eastern Europe," CASE Network Reports 0057, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  3. Ciaian, Pavel & Swinnen, Johan F.M., 2007. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Central and Eastern Europe," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper 48385, World Bank.

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