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Rebound and disinvestment effects in oil consumption and supply resulting from an increase in energy efficiency in the Scottish commercial transport sector

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  • Ansona, Sam
  • Turner, Karen

Abstract

In this paper we use an energy-economy-environment computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Scottish economy to examine the impacts of an exogenous increase in energy augmenting technological progress in the domestic commercial Transport sector on the supply and use of energy. We focus our analysis on oil, as the main type of energy input used in commercial transport activity. We find that a 5% increase in energy efficiency in the commercial Transport sector leads to rebound effects in the use of oil-based energy commodities in all time periods, in the target sector and at the economy-wide level. However, our results also suggest that such an efficiency improvement may cause a contraction in capacity in the Scottish oil supply sector. This ‘disinvestment effect’ acts as a constraint on the size of rebound effects. However, the magnitude of rebound effects and presence of the disinvestment effect in the simulations conducted here are sensitive to the specification of key elasticities of substitution in the nested production function for the target sector, particularly the substitutability of energy for non-energy intermediate inputs to production.

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Paper provided by Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE) in its series SIRE Discussion Papers with number 2009-05.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:edn:sirdps:128

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Keywords: general equilibrium; energy efficiency; rebound effects; disinvestment;

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  1. Keppler, Jan Horst & Birol, Fatih, 2000. "Prices, technology development and the rebound effect," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/10972, Paris Dauphine University.
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  4. Hanley, Nick & McGregor, Peter G. & Swales, J. Kim & Turner, Karen, 2009. "Do increases in energy efficiency improve environmental quality and sustainability?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 692-709, January.
  5. Semboja, Haji Hatibu Haji, 1994. "The effects of an increase in energy efficiency on the Kenya economy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 217-225, March.
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  7. Brookes, Len, 1990. "The greenhouse effect: the fallacies in the energy efficiency solution," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 199-201, March.
  8. Saunders, Harry D., 2000. "Does predicted rebound depend on distinguishing between energy and energy services?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(6-7), pages 497-500, June.
  9. Turner, Karen, 2008. "A computable general equilibrium analysis of the relative price sensitivity required to induce rebound effects in response to an improvement in energy efficiency in the UK economy," SIRE Discussion Papers 2008-20, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  10. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173, September.
  11. Allan, Grant & Hanley, Nick & McGregor, Peter & Swales, Kim & Turner, Karen, 2007. "The impact of increased efficiency in the industrial use of energy: A computable general equilibrium analysis for the United Kingdom," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 779-798, July.
  12. Kemfert, Claudia, 1998. "Estimated substitution elasticities of a nested CES production function approach for Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 249-264, June.
  13. Saunders, Harry D., 2000. "A view from the macro side: rebound, backfire, and Khazzoom-Brookes," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(6-7), pages 439-449, June.
  14. Herring, Horace, 1999. "Does energy efficiency save energy? The debate and its consequences," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 209-226, July.
  15. Dufournaud, Christian M. & Quinn, John T. & Harrington, Joseph J., 1994. "An Applied General Equilibrium (AGE) analysis of a policy designed to reduce the household consumption of wood in the Sudan," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 67-90, March.
  16. Grepperud, Sverre & Rasmussen, Ingeborg, 2004. "A general equilibrium assessment of rebound effects," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 261-282, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Mahmood, Arshad & Marpaung, Charles O.P., 2014. "Carbon pricing and energy efficiency improvement -- why to miss the interaction for developing economies? An illustrative CGE based application to the Pakistan case," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 87-103.
  2. Jensen, Christa D. & McIntyre, Stuart & Turner, Karen & Munday, Max, 2009. "Responsibility for regional waste generation: A single region extended input-output analysis with uni-directional trade flows," SIRE Discussion Papers 2009-58, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  3. Turner, Karen & Hanley, Nick & De Fence, Janine, 2009. "Do Productivity Improvements Move Us Along the Environmental Kuznets Curve?," SIRE Discussion Papers 2009-24, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  4. Karen Turner & Michelle Gilmartin & Peter G. McGregor & J. Kim Swales, 2012. "An integrated IO and CGE approach to analysing changes in environmental trade balances," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 91(1), pages 161-180, 03.

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