Output growth and fluctuation: the role of financial openness
Abstract
I analyze output growth, volatility, and skewness as the joint outcomes of financial openness. Using an industry panel of 53 countries over 45 years, I find that financial openness increases simultaneously mean growth and the negative skewness of the growth process. The increase in output skewness appears to come from a more negatively skewed distribution of investment, TFP, and new business creation. The growth benefits of financial liberalization are augmented, and its costs associated with higher probability of rare large contractions are mitigated by deep credit markets and by strong institutions. The main result of the paper holds in aggregated data. JEL Classification: E32, F30, F36, F43, G15.Download Info
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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1368.Length: 55 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20111368
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Keywords: Financial openness; growth; volatility; skewness; development.;Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
- F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
- F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-09-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-BEC-2011-09-05 (Business Economics)
- NEP-OPM-2011-09-05 (Open Economy Macroeconomic)
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