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Structural Shift in Demand for Food - Projections for 2020

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  • Surabhi Mittal

    (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations)

Abstract

Knowledge of demand structure and consumer behaviour is essential for a wide range of development policy questions like improvement in nutritional status, food subsidy, sectoral and macroeconomic policy analysis, etc. An analysis of food consumption patterns and how they are likely to shift with changes in income and relative price is required to assess the food security-related policy issues in the agricultural sector. With high growth rates in the agricultural sector, the average per capita income in the country shows an increase, accompanied by a fall in the per capita consumption of staple food. In this background the present study diagnoses the food basket of households in rural and urban areas under different expenditure groups in the last two decades and tries to investigate the driving force for these changes by computing the demand elasticities that explain the level of demand for the commodities by an individual consumer given the structure of relative prices faced, real income and a set of individual characteristics such as age, type of household (expenditure groups) and geographical environment (rural or urban). The study projects the prospects of the food demand scenario in the country in 2020. And, finally, aims at finding answers to some of the most debatable issues relating to the countrys food security, decline in cereal consumption and implications on poverty. The study uses data from the consumer expenditure survey of the National Sample Survey (NSS) rounds number 38, 43, 50 and 55.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by East Asian Bureau of Economic Research in its series Macroeconomics Working Papers with number 22223.

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Date of creation: Jan 2006
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Handle: RePEc:eab:macroe:22223

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Keywords: Household Food Consumption; Demand Elasticity; Decomposition; Demand Projections; Quadratic AIDS Model;

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References

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  1. Trueblood, Michael A. & Shapouri, Shahla, 2001. "Implications of Trade Liberalization on Food Security of Low-income Countries," Agricultural Information Bulletins, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service 33705, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
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  8. Meenakshi, J.V. & Ray, R., 1996. "Regional Differences in India's Food Expenditure Pattern: A Complete Demand Systems Approach," Papers, Tasmania - Department of Economics 1996-06, Tasmania - Department of Economics.
  9. Blundell, Richard & Pashardes, Panos & Weber, Guglielmo, 1993. "What Do We Learn About Consumer Demand Patterns from Micro Data?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 570-97, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Surabhi Mittal, 2010. "Demand-Supply Trends and Projections of Food in India," Working Papers, eSocialSciences id:2703, eSocialSciences.
  2. Muhammad, Kabeer & Asghar, Zahid, 2012. "Multi-facet approach for food security in Pakistan," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany 42891, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Ganesh-Kumar, A. & Mehta, Rajesh & Pullabhotla, Hemant & Prasad, Sanjay K. & Ganguly, Kavery & Gulati, Ashok, 2012. "Demand and supply of cereals in India: 2010-2025:," IFPRI discussion papers, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) 1158, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  4. Thomas, Lijo & Jha, Girish Kumar & Pal, Suresh, 2013. "External Market Linkages and Instability in Indian Edible Oil Economy: Implications for Self-sufficiency Policy in Edible Oils," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 26(2).
  5. Rastogi, Siddhartha K., 2012. "Welfare Assessment of SPS Standards: An Empirical Study of Indo-US Mango Trade Case," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 25(2).
  6. Kumar, Praduman & Kumar, Anjani & Parappurathu, Shinoj & Raju, S.S., 2011. "Estimation of Demand Elasticity for Food Commodities in India," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 24(1).
  7. Siddhartha.K.Rastogi, 2011. "Welfare Assessment of SPS Standards: An Empirical Study of Indo-US Mango Trade Dispute," Working Papers, Indian Institute of Foreign Trade EC-11-05, Indian Institute of Foreign Trade.
  8. Surabhi Mittal, 2010. "Application of the Quaids Model to the Food Sector in India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, The Indian Econometric Society, The Indian Econometric Society, vol. 8(1), pages 42-54, January.

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