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Demand and supply of cereals in India: 2010-2025:

Author

Listed:
  • Ganesh-Kumar, A.
  • Mehta, Rajesh
  • Pullabhotla, Hemant
  • Prasad, Sanjay K.
  • Ganguly, Kavery
  • Gulati, Ashok

Abstract

This paper attempts to project the future supply and demand up to the year 2025 for rice and wheat, the two main cereals cultivated and consumed in India. A review of studies that forecast the supply and demand of Indian agriculture commodities revealed three important limitations of such studies: (a) The forecasts are generally overestimated (in the ex post situation); (b) the methodology is not clearly outlined; (c) ex-ante validation of the forecast have not been carried out. This study presents forecasts based on models that are validated so that forecast performances can be assessed.

Suggested Citation

  • Ganesh-Kumar, A. & Mehta, Rajesh & Pullabhotla, Hemant & Prasad, Sanjay K. & Ganguly, Kavery & Gulati, Ashok, 2012. "Demand and supply of cereals in India: 2010-2025:," IFPRI discussion papers 1158, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1158
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sarma, J. S. & Gandhi, Vasant P., 1990. "Production and consumption of foodgrains in India: implications of accelerated economic growth and poverty alleviation," Research reports 81, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Surabhi Mittal, 2006. "Structural Shift in Demand for Food: Projections for 2020," Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi Working Papers 184, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi, India.
    3. Rosegrant, Mark W. & Agcaoili-Sombilla, Mercedita C. & Perez, Nicostrato D., 1995. "Global food projections to 2020: implications for investment," 2020 vision discussion papers 5, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    4. Richard Green & Julian M. Alston, 1990. "Elasticities in AIDS Models," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 72(2), pages 442-445.
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    Cited by:

    1. Arvind Panagariya & Megha Mukim, 2014. "A Comprehensive Analysis of Poverty in India," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 31(1), pages 1-52, March.
    2. Hoa K. Hoang, 2018. "Analysis of food demand in Vietnam and short†term impacts of market shocks on quantity and calorie consumption," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 49(1), pages 83-95, January.
    3. Rahul Anand & Naresh Kumar & Mr. Volodymyr Tulin, 2016. "Understanding India’s Food Inflation: The Role of Demand and Supply Factors," IMF Working Papers 2016/002, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Ward, Patrick S. & Ortega, David L. & Spielman, David J. & Singh, Vartika, 2013. "Farmer preferences for drought tolerance in hybrid versus inbred rice: Evidence from Bihar, India:," IFPRI discussion papers 1307, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. Christophe Gouel & Madhur Gautam & Will J. Martin, 2016. "Managing food price volatility in a large open country: the case of wheat in India," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(3), pages 811-835.
    6. pandey, Aviral, 2015. "Food security in India and States: key challenges and policy option," MPRA Paper 64237, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2015.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cereal crops; Wheat markets; Rice markets; quadratic almost ideal demand system; Household behavior; Cereal Systems Initiative for South Asia (CSISA);
    All these keywords.

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