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Demand and supply of cereals in India: 2010-2025:

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Author Info

  • Ganesh-Kumar, A.
  • Mehta, Rajesh
  • Pullabhotla, Hemant
  • Prasad, Sanjay K.
  • Ganguly, Kavery
  • Gulati, Ashok
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    Abstract

    This paper attempts to project the future supply and demand up to the year 2025 for rice and wheat, the two main cereals cultivated and consumed in India. A review of studies that forecast the supply and demand of Indian agriculture commodities revealed three important limitations of such studies: (a) The forecasts are generally overestimated (in the ex post situation); (b) the methodology is not clearly outlined; (c) ex-ante validation of the forecast have not been carried out. This study presents forecasts based on models that are validated so that forecast performances can be assessed.

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    File URL: http://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/ifpridp01158.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in its series IFPRI discussion papers with number 1158.

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    Date of creation: 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1158

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    Related research

    Keywords: Cereal crops; Wheat markets; Rice markets; quadratic almost ideal demand system; Household behavior; Cereal Systems Initiative for South Asia (CSISA);

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    1. Surabhi Mittal, 2006. "Structural Shift in Demand for Food - Projections for 2020," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22223, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    2. Sarma, J. S. & Gandhi, Vasant P., 1990. "Production and consumption of foodgrains in India: implications of accelerated economic growth and poverty alleviation," Research reports 81, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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