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Global market shocks and poverty in Vietnam: the case of rice

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  • Ian Coxhead

    ()
    (Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison)

  • Vu Hoang Linh

    (University of Economics and Business - Vietnam National University)

  • Le Dong Tam

    (Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison)

Abstract

World food prices have experienced dramatic increases in recent years. These "shocks" affect food importers and exporters alike. Vietnam is a major exporter of rice, and rice is also a key item in domestic production, employment and consumption. Accordingly, rice price shocks from the world market have general equilibrium impacts and as such, their implications for household welfare are not known ex ante. In this paper we present a framework for understanding the direct and indirect welfare effects of a global market shock of this kind. We quantify transmission of the shock from global indicator prices to domestic markets. Then we use an applied general equilibrium model to simulate the economic effects of the price changes. A recursive mapping to a nationally representative household living standards survey permits us to identify in detail the ceteris paribus effects of the shock on household incomes and welfare. In this analysis, interregional and intersectoral labor market adjustments emerge as key channels transmitting the effects of global price shocks across sectors and among households.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Development and Policies Research Center (DEPOCEN), Vietnam in its series Working Papers with number 32.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:dpc:wpaper:3212

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Keywords: Vietnam; rice; poverty; labor mobility; general equilibrium; microsimulation.;

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  1. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will, 2008. "Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4594, The World Bank.
  2. Peter Warr, 2008. "World food prices and poverty incidence in a food exporting country: a multihousehold general equilibrium analysis for Thailand," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 525-537, November.
  3. Phan, Diep & Coxhead, Ian, 2008. "Interprovincial Migration and Inequality During Vietnam's Transition," Staff Paper Series, University of Wisconsin, Agricultural and Applied Economics 507, University of Wisconsin, Agricultural and Applied Economics.
  4. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  5. Aksoy , M. Ataman & Isik-Dikmelik, Aylin, 2008. "Are low food prices pro-poor ? net food buyers and sellers in low-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4642, The World Bank.
  6. Jensen, Henning Tarp & Tarp, Finn, 2007. "A Vietnam Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for the Year 2003," MPRA Paper 29822, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Vu, Linh & Glewwe, Paul, 2011. "Impacts of Rising Food Prices on Poverty and Welfare in Vietnam," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 36(1), April.
  8. Maros Ivanic & Will Martin, 2008. "Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low-income countries-super-1," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 405-416, November.
  9. Chris Manning, 2009. "Globalisation and Labour Markets in Boom and Crisis: The Case of Vietnam," Departmental Working Papers, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics 2009-17, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  10. Zahoor ul Haq & Hina Nazli & Karl Meilke, 2008. "Implications of high food prices for poverty in Pakistan," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 477-484, November.
  11. Robert T. Jensen & Nolan H. Miller, 2008. "The impact of food price increases on caloric intake in China," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 465-476, November.
  12. Minot, Nicholas & Goletti, Francesco, 2000. "Rice market liberalization and poverty in Viet Nam:," Research reports, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) 114, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  13. Foster, James & Greer, Joel & Thorbecke, Erik, 1984. "A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 761-66, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Diao, Xinshen & Kennedy, Adam & Mabiso, Athur & Pradesha, Angga, 2013. "Economywide impact of maize export bans on agricultural growth and household welfare in Tanzania: A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model Analysis:," IFPRI discussion papers, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) 1287, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  2. Mofya-Mukuka, Rhoda & Abdulai, Awudu, 2013. "Policy reforms and asymmetric price transmission in the Zambian and Tanzanian coffee markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 786-795.
  3. Mofya-Mukuka, Rhoda & Abdulai, Awudu, 2013. "Effects of Policy Reforms on Price Transmission in Coffee Markets: Evidence from Zambia and Tanzania," Food Security Collaborative Working Papers, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics 171870, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.

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