Does Tourism Predict Macroeconomic Performance in Pacific Island Countries?
AbstractIn this paper we examine whether tourism predicts macroeconomic variables in Pacific Island countries (PICs), namely, Fiji, the Solomon Islands, PNG, Vanuatu, Samoa, and Tonga. We form seven panels of PICs—one full panel of six countries and six panels where, one-by-one, each country is excluded from the panel. We apply the Westerlund and Narayan (2012a) panel regression framework, where the null hypothesis is that visitor arrivals do not predict macroeconomic variables, which we proxy with 11 indicators, for panels of countries. We find that visitor arrivals consistently predict exports and money supply, and to a lesser extent, exchange rates and GDP.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance in its series Financial Econometics Series with number 2013_03.
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Tourism; Macroeconomic variables; GDP; Money Supply; Panel Data; Predictive Regression Model.;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-08-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-FOR-2013-08-16 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2013-08-16 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-SPO-2013-08-16 (Sports & Economics)
- NEP-TUR-2013-08-16 (Tourism Economics)
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