Backward Induction is not Robust: The Parity Problem and the Uncertainty Problem

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Backward Induction is not Robust: The Parity Problem and the Uncertainty Problem

Author Info

Kilgour, D.M.
Brams, S.J.

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Steven J. Brams

Abstract

A cornerstone of game theory is backward induction, whereby players reason backward from the end of a game in extensive form to the beginning in order to determine what choices are rational at each stage of play. Truels, or three-person duels, are used to illustrate how the outcome can depend on (1) the evenness/oddness of the number of rounds (the parity problem) and (2) uncertainty about the endpoint of the game (the uncertainty problem).

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Paper provided by C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University in its series Working Papers with number 96-21.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 1996
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cvs:starer:96-21

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C70 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - General
C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
C79 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Other

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Kreps, David M. & Wilson, Robert, 1982. "Reputation and imperfect information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 253-279, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- David Kreps & Robert Wilson, 1999. "Reputation and Imperfect Information," Levine's Working Paper Archive 238, David K. Levine. [Downloadable!]
Milgrom, Paul & Roberts, John, 1982. "Predation, reputation, and entry deterrence," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 280-312, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Paul Milgrom & John Roberts, 1997. "Predation, reputation , and entry deterrence," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1460, David K. Levine. [Downloadable!]
- Paul Milgrom & John Roberts, 1980. "Predation, Reputation, and Entry Deterrence," Discussion Papers 427, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

DUFOUR, Jean-Marie, 2000. "Économétrie, théorie des tests et philosophie des sciences," Cahiers de recherche 2000-14, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Jean-Marie Dufour, 2000. "Économétrie, théorie des tests et philosophie des sciences," CIRANO Working Papers 2000s-47, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
- Dufour, J.M., 2000. "Econometrie, theorie des tests et philosophie des sciences," Cahiers de recherche 2000-14, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
Brams, S. J. & Kilgour, M. D., 2001. "Games That End in a Bang or a Whimper," Working Papers 01-05, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
BOSSERT, Walter & BRAMS, Steven J. & KILGOUR, D. Marc, 2000. "Cooperative VS. Non-cooperative Truels: Little Agreement, but Does that Matter?," Cahiers de recherche 2000-15, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Bossert, W. & Brams, S. J. & Kilgour, D. M., 2000. "Cooperative vs. Non-Cooperative Truels: Little Agreement, But Does That Matter?," Working Papers 00-19, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
- Bossert, W. & Brams, S.J. & Kilgour, D.M., 2000. "Cooperative VS. Non-cooperative Truels: Little Agreement, but Does that Matter?," Cahiers de recherche 2000-15, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Bossert, Walter & Brams, Steven J. & Kilgour, D. Marc, 2002. "Cooperative vs non-cooperative truels: little agreement, but does that matter?," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 185-202, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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