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Contagion Versus Flight To Quality In Financial Markets

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  • Jesus Gonzalo

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  • Jose Olmo

    ()

Abstract

None doubts that financial markets are related (interdependent). What is not so clear is whether there exists contagion among them or not, its intensity, and its causal direction. The aim of this paper is to define properly the term contagion (different from interdependence) and to present a formal test for its existence, the magnitude of its intensity, and for its direction. Our definition of contagion lies on tail dependence measures and it is made operational through its equivalence with some copula properties. In order to do that, we define a NEW copula, a variant of the Gumbel type, that is sufficiently flexible to describe different patterns of dependence, as well as being able to model asymmetric effects of the analyzed variables (something not allowed with the standard copula models). Finally, we estimate our copula model to test the intensity and the direction of the extreme causality between bonds and stocks markets (in particular, the flight to quality phenomenon) during crises periods. We find evidence of a substitution effect between Dow Jones Corporate Bonds Index with 2 years maturity and Dow Jones Stock Price Index when one of them is through distress periods. On the contrary, if both are going through crises periods a contagion effect is observed. The analysis of the corresponding 30 years maturity bonds with the stock market reflects independent effects of the shocks.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía in its series Economics Working Papers with number we051810.

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Date of creation: Apr 2005
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Handle: RePEc:cte:werepe:we051810

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  1. Granger, Clive W.J. & Teräsvirta, Timo & Patton, Andrew J., 2002. "Common factors in conditional distributions," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 515, Stockholm School of Economics.
  2. François Longin, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, 04.
  3. Hartmann, Philipp & Straetmans, Stefan & de Vries, Casper, 2001. "Asset market linkages in crisis periods," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 0071, European Central Bank.
  4. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
  5. Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements," NBER Working Papers 7267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pericoli, Marcello & Sbracia, Massimo, 2002. "Some Contagion, Some Interdependence: More Pitfalls in Tests of Financial Contagion," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 3310, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Chiu-Lan Chang & Paul L. Hsueh, 2013. "An Investigation of the Flight-to-Quality Effect: Evidence from Asia-Pacific Countries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 49(S4), pages 53-69, September.
  2. Craig S. Hakkio & William R. Keeton, 2009. "Financial stress: what is it, how can it be measured, and why does it matter?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 5-50.
  3. Felices, Guillermo & Grisse, Christian & Yang, Jing, 2009. "International financial transmission: emerging and mature markets," Bank of England working papers, Bank of England 373, Bank of England.
  4. Kallenberg, Wilbert C.M., 2008. "Modelling dependence," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 127-146, February.
  5. Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2010. "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 217-229, 05.
  6. Paulo Horta & Carlos Mendes & Isabel Vieira, 2008. "Contagion effects of the US Subprime Crisis on Developed Countries," CEFAGE-UE Working Papers 2008_08, University of Evora, CEFAGE-UE (Portugal).

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