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Survival of Hedge Funds : Frailty vs Contagion

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  • Serge Darolles

    ()
    (Paris-Dauphine University and CREST)

  • Patrick Gagliardini

    ()
    (University of Lugano)

  • Christian Gouriéroux

    (CREST and University of Toronto)

Abstract

In this paper we examine the dependence between the liquidation risks of individual hedge funds. This dependence can result either from common exogenous shocks (shared frailty), or from contagion phenomena, which occur when an endogenous behaviour of a fund manager impacts the Net Asset Values of other funds. We introduce dynamic models able to distinguish between frailty and contagion phenomena, and test for the presence of such dependence effects, according to the age and management style of the fund. We demonstrate the empirical relevance of our approach by measuring the magnitudes of contagion and exogenous frailty in liquidation risk dependence in the TASS database. The empirical analysis is completed by stress-tests on portfolios of hedge funds.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique in its series Working Papers with number 2012-36.

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Length: 81
Date of creation: Nov 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:crs:wpaper:2012-36

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Keywords: Hedge Fund; Liquidation Correlation; Frailty; Contagion; Dynamic Count Model; Autoregressive Gamma Process; Systemic Risk; Stress-tests; Liquidation Swap; Funding Liquidity; Market Liquidity.;

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