Market conditions and hedge fund survival

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Market conditions and hedge fund survival

Author Info

Mark Carlson
Jason Steinman

Abstract

As the hedge fund industry has grown, there has been increased concern that, during sharp market moves, hedge fund failures could exacerbate the deterioration in financial conditions and deepen a crisis. However, there has not been much formal analysis regarding the impact of financial market conditions on hedge fund survival. To help fill this gap, this paper examines the relationship between financial market conditions and the likelihood of hedge fund failure after controlling for performance and other characteristics. The analysis is conducted using data on individual funds and industry aggregates. We find that market returns and volatility influence fund failures, although the impact depends on the funds' investment strategies. The results of the analysis are then used to predict hedge fund failures based on actual market returns and on stress scenarios. We find that the hedge fund industry is generally robust to different shocks.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2008-28.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2008-28

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Related research
Keywords: Hedge funds;

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2008-07-14 (All new papers)
NEP-FMK-2008-07-14 (Financial Markets)

References listed on IDEAS
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Baquero, G. & Horst, J.R. ter & Verbeek, M.J.C.M., 2002. "Survival, Look-Ahead Bias and the Persistence in Hedge Fund Performance," Research Paper ERS-2002-104-F&A Revision, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Baquero, G. & Horst, J. ter & Verbeek, M., 2002. "Survival, look-ahead bias and the persistence in hedge fund performance," Discussion Paper 111, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
Tomas Garbaravicius & Frank Dierick, 2005. "Hedge funds and their implications for financial stability," Occasional Paper Series 34, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
Baquero, Guillermo & ter Horst, Jenke & Verbeek, Marno, 2005. "Survival, Look-Ahead Bias, and Persistence in Hedge Fund Performance," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(03), pages 493-517, September. [Downloadable!]
Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2002. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-in-Differences Estimates?," NBER Working Papers 8841, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-in-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Liang, Bing, 2000. "Hedge Funds: The Living and the Dead," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(03), pages 309-326, September. [Downloadable!]
Nicholas Chan & Mila Getmansky & Shane M. Haas & Andrew W. Lo, 2005. "Systemic Risk and Hedge Funds," NBER Working Papers 11200, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Nicholas Chan & Mila Getmansky & Shane M. Haas & Andrew W. Lo, 2007. "Systemic Risk and Hedge Funds," NBER Chapters, in: The Risks of Financial Institutions, pages 235-338 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
Fung, William & Hsieh, David A., 2000. "Performance Characteristics of Hedge Funds and Commodity Funds: Natural vs. Spurious Biases," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(03), pages 291-307, September. [Downloadable!]

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