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Market conditions and hedge fund survival

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Abstract

As the hedge fund industry has grown, there has been increased concern that, during sharp market moves, hedge fund failures could exacerbate the deterioration in financial conditions and deepen a crisis. However, there has not been much formal analysis regarding the impact of financial market conditions on hedge fund survival. To help fill this gap, this paper examines the relationship between financial market conditions and the likelihood of hedge fund failure after controlling for performance and other characteristics. The analysis is conducted using data on individual funds and industry aggregates. We find that market returns and volatility influence fund failures, although the impact depends on the funds' investment strategies. The results of the analysis are then used to predict hedge fund failures based on actual market returns and on stress scenarios. We find that the hedge fund industry is generally robust to different shocks.

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  • Mark A. Carlson & Jason Steinman, 2008. "Market conditions and hedge fund survival," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-28, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2008-28
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Vikas Agarwal, 2004. "Risks and Portfolio Decisions Involving Hedge Funds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(1), pages 63-98.
    2. Tomas Garbaravicius & Frank Dierick, 2005. "Hedge funds and their implications for financial stability," Occasional Paper Series 34, European Central Bank.
    3. Naohiko Baba & Hiromichi Goko, 2006. "Survival Analysis of Hedge Funds," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 06-E-5, Bank of Japan.
    4. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-In-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275.
    5. Baquero, Guillermo & ter Horst, Jenke & Verbeek, Marno, 2005. "Survival, Look-Ahead Bias, and Persistence in Hedge Fund Performance," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(3), pages 493-517, September.
    6. Nicholas Chan & Mila Getmansky & Shane M. Haas & Andrew W. Lo, 2007. "Systemic Risk and Hedge Funds," NBER Chapters, in: The Risks of Financial Institutions, pages 235-330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Fung, William & Hsieh, David A., 2000. "Performance Characteristics of Hedge Funds and Commodity Funds: Natural vs. Spurious Biases," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(3), pages 291-307, September.
    8. Liang, Bing, 2000. "Hedge Funds: The Living and the Dead," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(3), pages 309-326, September.
    9. Garbaravicius, Tomas & Dierick, Frank, 2005. "Hedge funds and their implications for financial stability," Occasional Paper Series 34, European Central Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Serge Darolles & Patrick Gagliardini & Christian Gouriéroux, 2012. "Survival of Hedge Funds : Frailty vs Contagion," Working Papers 2012-36, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.

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